UNO Baseball – Conference Championship Scenarios – Previewing SDSU Series

It’s 4 game over 3 days starting tomorrow…

vs. South Dakota State on Thursday the 16th
DH vs. South Dakota State on Friday the 17th
vs. South Dakota State on Saturday the 18th

And all UNO needs to do to win a share of the conference title is win a single game! Two games up on SDSU coming in so a 3-1 split for SDSU only evens the standings. A split for UNO? That’d give them the conference title outright!

Was there anyone at UNO during the start of the D1 transition who would have said, “You know… I think that first year we could have a team at home playing for a conference title in the final week of the season”? I doubt it… I don’t think anyone realized just how competitive most of the teams would be.

And against all expectations… UNO was picked to finish last in baseball, although just barely behind Fort Wayne, and now they look likely to finish in 1st. Incredible.

Once this weekend is over I’m planning on writing a recap of the entire Summit League season and just how good UNO was… It’s shocking for a program in their 2nd year of transition from D2.

UNO Baseball – Conference Championship Scenarios – After 5/14 (UNO’s Games)

Mavericks with a monster sweep today and South Dakota State blew a 10-3 lead in game 1 to lose 11-10 to North Dakota State!  Wow!

With this series still to come… UNO is in great shape.

vs. South Dakota State on Thursday the 16th
DH vs. South Dakota State on Friday the 17th
vs. South Dakota State on Saturday the 18th

Two scenarios… if SDSU loses game 2 and if they win it.

If SDSU loses game 2, UNO needs a single win in the series to get a outright conference title. They can not share the conference title with SDSU, only way they lose it is getting swept.

If SDSU wins game 2, UNO needs a split for an outright conference title and a single win to share the conference title.

Either way… ONE MORE WIN and UNO will have a conference title at the Division 1 level in their first season of conference competition. Incredible. I’d love to see it be outright though… so let’s not settle for just the one win!

UNO Baseball – Conference Championship Scenarios – After 5/12

South Dakota State got a 4th win over Fort Wayne to complete the series sweep. Not what UNO was hoping for out of that series, but thankfully the Mavericks have been fairly strong the last two weekends taking 5 of 8 in Western Illinois and Oakland. That means UNO heads back home still in 1st place in the Summit League. All that remains is 6 games over a 5 day stretch…

DH vs. Western Illinois on Tuesday the 14th
vs. South Dakota State on Thursday the 16th
DH vs. South Dakota State on Friday the 17th
vs. South Dakota State on Saturday the 18th

South Dakota State has 2 games at North Dakota State on Tuesday. The Bison have lost SEVEN straight games after starting conference play 6-5. They were once the overwhelming favorites to win the conference, but times have changed. Still this is a team that split four-game series earlier in the year with both Omaha and South Dakota State.

Now to look at the scenarios. On the left is what happens before the series. On the right is what needs to happen in the series to give UNO an outright title.

Remember UNO has 2 games, SDSU 2 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series

This is the same idea, but for a share of the conference title.
Remember UNO has 2 games, SDSU 2 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4 (outright… no chance at shared)
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series (outright… no chance at shared)
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series (outright… no chance at shared)

If UNO sweeps Western Illinois (or SDSU gets swept by North Dakota State… or SDSU loses 1 and UNO wins 1) then a split in the SDSU-UNO series will give UNO a conference title.

UNO Baseball – Conference Championship Scenarios – After 5/11

UNO got a big 7-2 win (after being down 2-1 heading to the 8th) today to get the magic number down to 6. They also have 6 games left… SDSU unfortunately swept their DH so they have one more vs. Fort Wayne and then a DH at North Dakota State on Tuesday before the 4-game series in Omaha to decide the Summit title.

DH vs. Western Illinois on Tuesday the 14th
vs. South Dakota State on Thursday the 16th
DH vs. South Dakota State on Friday the 17th
vs. South Dakota State on Saturday the 18th

Now to look at the scenarios. On the left is what happens before the series. On the right is what needs to happen in the series to give UNO an outright title.

Remember UNO has 2 games, SDSU 3 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
5 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series

This is the same idea, but for a share of the conference title.
Remember UNO has 2 games, SDSU 3 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4 (outright… no chance at shared)
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series (outright… no chance at shared)
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series (outright… no chance at shared)
5 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs

If UNO sweeps Western Illinois (or SDSU loses 2 of the next 3… or SDSU loses 1 and UNO wins 1) then a split in the SDSU-UNO series will give UNO a conference title.

Campbell Ditto – Summit League Freshman of the Year

Campbell Ditto was named Summit League Freshman of the Year earlier this week and that got me thinking… what’s the expected career arc for a softball player named Freshman of the Year in the Summit? Do they go on to win a player of the year award? How many first team honors do they go on to earn?

Unfortunately the Summit League has tended to give a “Newcomer” of the Year award in the past, and thus for most season it’s hard to tell if a player given the award was a freshman or a transfer who may have had one great year as a transfer senior before graduating.

Still, I’ll present the data as we have it…
* indicates they were 1st-team All-League as a freshman
Newcomer of the Year era… 1993-2009
1993 Kerry Coudry, Illinois-Chicago –> 0 Times
*1995 Michelle Oswald, Northeastern Illinois –> 4 Times, 1996 Player Of Year
*1996 Nicole Terpstra, DePaul –> 4 Times, 1996 Pitcher of Year, 1997 Pitcher of Year, 1998 Pitcher of Year, 1999 Pitcher of Year,
1997 Julie Luna, DePaul –> 2 Times
*1998 Dana Jakusz, DePaul –> 1 Time
*1999 Christy Adamson, IUPUI –> 1 Time
*2000 Brandy Moser, IUPUI –> 3 Times
2001 Jaymie Voss, Oakland –> 1 Time
*2002 Lindsey Davis, Kansas City –> 2 Times, 2002 Pitcher of the Year
2003 Christie McFarland, IUPUI –> 0 Times
*2004 Micah Rhodes, Centenary –> 4 Times
*2005 Tiffany Burt, Southern Utah –> 2 Times, 2005 Player of the Year
2006 Emerald Doria, Centenary –> 1 Time
2007 Lauren Furgala, Western Illinois –> 0 Times
2008 Elisa Victa, North Dakota State –> 1 Time
2009 Jamie Goss, Western Illinois –> 2 Times

From 1993-1998 there was a Mid-Con East and a Mid-Con West, so the 1st-team was perhaps easier to make…
During this time 8 of the 16 winners were first team all-conference in their first year. They ended up being first team an average of 2.6 times in their career. Those were weren’t first team all-conference in their first year only made first team all conference an average of 0.8 times, none more then twice. So we see that players who started on the first team end up making it an average of 0.8 times more over the rest of their career. Campbell Ditto was 2nd team All-Summit for UNO.

Additionally only two future players/pitchers of the year were also newcomer of the year, both in the mid 90′s. No one was 2nd-team as a newcomer and went on to win player/pitcher of the year.

Since 2010 The Summit League has had a Freshman of the Year award. We only have 3 to judge off of so far…

Freshman of the Year
2010 Whitney Johnson, North Dakota State –> 2 Times, 2013 Pitcher of the Year
*2011 Ashleigh Bousquet, Fort Wayne –> 3 Times
*2012 Krista Menke, North Dakota State –> 1 Time, 2012 Pitcher of the Year

Whitney Johnson would be a career path Mavericks fans would be happy to see from Campbell Ditto. Johnson was a 2nd-team All-Summit selection as a freshman but was 1st-team as a sophomore and senior and was this year’s Pitcher of the Year while leading North Dakota State to a regular season conference title.

We haven’t seen the end of Bousquet or Menke’s career year. Bousquet is now a 3-time All-Summit selection and will probably make that four next year while Krista Menke fell behind Johnson this year only starting 15 games (four in conference). She will be the leader of the staff next year so don’t be surprised to see her make a lot of noise.

Also don’t fail to notice that the two teams playing for the conference title tomorrow are Fort Wayne and North Dakota State. Bousquet is 2-5 with 2 runs in the conference tournament while Johnson and Menke each have wins for North Dakota State.

Hopefully Campbell Ditto can follow the path of these recent Freshman of the Year and will even have a shot at the conference tournament when UNO is eligible in 2016.

BTW Here’s the previous freshman of the year from UNO and their future accomplishments. Again a * indicates they were 1st-Team All-League as a freshman.

*1992 Diahann Armstrong – 1 Time
*1994 Tracy Carey – 2 Time
*1997 Kelly Secord – 1 Time
*2000 Krista Unger – 3 Time
*2004 Cheris Kuster – 4 Time
*2008 Beth Haley – 3 Time

No guarantee of future success, though the last 3 for UNO have been absolutely fantastic with Unger 1st in school history in career wins, Haley 3rd in wins, and Unger 4th in school history in opposing batting average.

UNO Baseball Enters Home Stretch… Conference Championship Scenarios – After 5/10

Long time no blog everyone… it’s been a refreshing break for me after a busy winter season. I’ve got some fresh ideas and look forward to sharing what I can.

Wanted to talk today a little about UNO Baseball heading into the final week of the season. UNO will wrap up the season on Saturday the 18th with a home game against South Dakota State. They have 6 games before that point.

@ Oakland on Saturday the 11th
DH vs. Western Illinois on Tuesday the 14th
vs. South Dakota State on Thursday the 16th
DH vs. South Dakota State on Friday the 17th.

UNO currently leads South Dakota State by a single game in the standings, 14-5 to 11-6. Yes that seems weird to call a single game because SDSU has played two less games, but that’s what it is.  The Magic Number for UNO is 7! 7 wins/SDSU losses and UNO is conference champs. Since the two teams meet for a 4 game series and in that series every UNO win would be worth 2 (since SDSU would also lose) this means even if UNO loses every game until that point a sweep in the series would make UNO outright conference champs.

Now to look at the more complete scenarios. On the left is what happens before the series. On the right is what needs to happen in the series to give UNO an outright title.

Remember UNO has 3 games, SDSU 5 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to sweep 4-0
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
5 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
6 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
7 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs
8 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs

This is the same idea, but for a share of the conference title.
Remember UNO has 3 games, SDSU 5 games before they meet.
0 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
1 UNO win/SDSU loss before the series –> UNO needs to take 3 of 4
2 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
3 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to split the series
4 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
5 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO needs to win a single game in the series
6 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs
7 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs (outright)
8 UNO wins/SDSU losses before the series –> UNO is conference champs (outright)

Tomorrow (as every day from here on) is a big day. If UNO wins and SDSU gets swept UNO would know a series split against SDSU would give them a conference title. Even a single UNO win/SDSU loss would mean UNO only needs a series win, not a sweep against SDSU, to win the title outright.

A strong finish to the weekend could set UNO up with a chance to win the conference title on Tuesday against Western Illinois. Would be nice to have that kind of breathing room but I certainly suspect South Dakota State will be playing their best ball knowing they are in a good position to make a run at the conference title.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/17-Final Look!

Nothing will really change from here… the last games to be played won’t impact South Dakota State’s seed, perhaps opponent though..

Anyways more good news as on average more people see South Dakota State as a #13 seed than a #14 seed. I say it’s likely they are a #13 now, but definitely not for sure. We’ll see tonight…

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Arizona – 2
Kansas State – 1
Ohio State – 1
Florida – 1
Wisconsin – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

3/17

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.6

13.6

13.5

13.3

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	13	Kansas State	San Jose	East	3/16/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	13	Arizona	San Jose	West	3/17/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Ohio State	Dayton	Midwest	3/15/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/13/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	Midwest	3/17/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	2nd #14 seed			3/16/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	3rd #13 seed			3/15/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	2nd #13 seed			3/16/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Arizona	San Jose	East	3/17/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	13	Wisconsin	San Jose	East	3/16/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/15 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #2 seed vs. Weber State. He also has Western Illinois as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. Delaware.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/16

South Dakota State has gotten basically no help from the last four conference tournaments. Still is a chance for help from the WAC and Southland finals this evening, so we’ll see.

Here’s how things look before that all shakes out… Final update tomorrow.

At this point it’s really 50-50 between 13 and 14 seed depending who you ask. We’ll know for sure tomorrow evening but boy would an upset tonight sure help.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 2
Florida – 1
Ohio State – 1
Syracuse – 1
Wisconsin – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.6

13.6

13.5

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/15/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Ohio State	Dayton	Midwest	3/15/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/13/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/16/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	2nd #14 seed			3/16/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	3rd #13 seed			3/15/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	3rd #13 seed			3/16/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Syracuse	Austin	West	3/16/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	13	Wisconsin	San Jose	East	3/16/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/15 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #2 seed vs. Weber State. He also has Western Illinois as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. Delaware.

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/15/13 & 3/16/13

I was all excited to write today of how Louisiana Tech’s loss and Denver’s loss yesterday was a big boost to South Dakota State’s seeding as they would be ahead of the WAC winner. Then I remembered New Mexico State…. 22-10 on the year with a RPI of 56, they are certainly a team that could be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. So we’re not done rooting against the WAC’s top teams… they need to go out too.

In the other game out West, Weber State had no problems with Northern Arizona. They are in the Big Sky though and it’s not likely that they would be ahead of South Dakota State anyways.

So we enter semifinal Friday and championship Saturday. I’ll be out of town overnight so this will have to be your update for most of the rest of the way. I might be able to throw a quick one up on Saturday evening before the WAC championship game, Southland Championship, and the Big Sky Championship. The MAC Championship game is a lot cause for me though, it’ll start before I’m home.

These are the top three teams to see knocked off this weekend… Two of these and I think South Dakota State is a #13. One and it’s likely. None and it might still be 50-50… but it’s definitely less likely.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. New Mexico State – WAC
3. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:
Weber State – Beat Northern Arizona 84-58 – Big Sky Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: North Dakota 16-15 (12-8) in Big Sky Tournament Semifinal on Friday in Missoula, Montana

Denver – Lost to Texas State 72-68 – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: Regular season over, not going to be at-large team

Louisiana Tech – Lost to UTSA 73-67 – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: Regular season over, not going to be at-large team

Teams to root against tonight– 3/15:
All times CT
Root against… Stephen F. Austin vs. Southeastern Louisiana – 5 PM – Southland Conference Tournament Semifinal in Katy, Texas – ESPN3
Root against… Akron vs. Kent State – 5:30 PM – MAC Tournament Semifinal in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN3
Root against… Weber State vs. North Dakota – 6:30 PM – Big Sky Tournament Semifinal in Missoula, Montana
Root against… New Mexico State vs. Texas State – 8 PM – WAC Tournament Semifinal in Las Vegas, Nevada
Root against… Ohio vs. Western Michigan – 8 PM – MAC Tournament Semifinal in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN3
Root against… Montana vs. Northern Colorado – 9:05 PM – Big Sky Tournament Semifinal at Montana

Teams to root against tomorrow– 3/16:
All times CT
Root against… Akron/Ohio vs. TBD – 5:30 PM – MAC Tournament Final in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN2
Root against… Stephen F. Austin vs. TBD – 7:30 PM – Southland Conference Tournament Final in Katy, Texas – ESPN2
Root against… Weber State/Montana vs. TBD – 8 PM – Big Sky Tournament Final in Missoula, Montana – ESPNU
Root against… New Mexico State vs. TBD – 10 PM – WAC Tournament Final in Las Vegas, Nevada – ESPNU

Summaries for each league:
MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio faces Western Michigan 20-11 (10-6) while Akron takes on Kent State 20-12 (9-7) in the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – With both Denver and Louisiana Tech out I thought we might be done worrying about the WAC…. Instead enter New Mexico State who might have a good enough resume to jump the Jackrabbits as well. They take on Texas State 12-21 (5-13) on Friday in the semifinals. Only Texas-Arlington is left with a winning record 18-12 (11-7). Oh boy…

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. They opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals against Southeastern Louisiana 13-17 (10-8). Thankfully Northwestern State at 21-8 (15-3) is on the other side of the bracket so they should get a good game in the final.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State plays against North Dakota 16-15 (12-8) while Montana takes on Northern Colorado 13-17 (10-10) in the two semifinals. Clearly the chances of an upset here are not good, but it probably isn’t necessary.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/15

While our five updates today don’t show any actual movement in seeds, there were two people that moved South Dakota State up a spot from 4th #13 to 3rd #13. It’s something.

Also interesting is that 3 of our projections are very out of date (Monday or earlier). Of the 7 that aren’t out of date, 4 have South Dakota State as a #13 seed. Gotta be close at this point. I think they are 60-40 for being a #13 personally.

By the way, I’ll be out of town overnight tonight so no update tomorrow morning. I’ll check in with an update Saturday evening and then again Sunday morning for the final projections.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Florida – 3
Michigan – 2
Arizona – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.6

13.6

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Arizona	San Jose	West	3/15/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/10/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/13/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/15/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	East	3/11/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	3rd #13 seed			3/15/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	3rd #13 seed			3/15/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Saint Louis	San Jose	West	3/15/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/14/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/14/13

South Dakota State in it’s first day of knowing they were in didn’t get any help from Lafayette as Bucknell defeated the Leopards by eight to reach the tournament. This means that the Jackrabbits really have just a few leagues left where an upset could help them. The MAC, the WAC, and the Southland.

In the MAC anyone but Akron or Ohio would be a big boost for the Jackrabbits while in the Southland anyone but Stephen F. Austin would help out. In the WAC I’m rooting for Denver since they’ll bring some extra attention to the Summit League since they are joining next year, but if they can’t win it we definitely don’t want to see Louisiana Tech in the field.

South Dakota State is right on the edge between #13 and #14 seeds right now but with a couple of upsets in these leagues that #13 seed would be much more likely.

Today you can root for Denver against Texas State and against Louisiana Tech when they play UTSA. The only other relevant game is in Missoula, Montana where Weber State takes on Northern Arizona. While Montana and Weber State are probably still behind South Dakota State an upset certainly wouldn’t hurt. Tomorrow will be the semifinals in all four leagues we’re watching with the finals on Saturday.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
3. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:
Bucknell – Beat Lafayette 64-56 – Patriot League Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT
Root against… Weber State vs. Northern Arizona – Big Sky Tournament Quarterfinal in Missoula, Montana.
Root for… Denver vs. Texas State – 4:30 PM – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal in Las Vegas, Nevada
Root against… Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA – 8 PM – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal in Las Vegas, Nevada

Summaries for each league:
MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th, Denver vs. Texas State and Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/14

Five updates again today and one of them moved South Dakota State from a #14 seed to a #13 seed. According to our ten panelists it’s really almost 50-50 on which one they’ll be at this point, slightly more like it’s a #14. One more upset could tilt the seeding in their favor.

On the subject of seeding and Summit League teams and that topic… if Denver does make the NCAA Tournament this year we can look forward to next year being the first time since 1991-92 that two of the teams playing in the Summit League were in the NCAA Tournament the year before.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Florida – 3
Michigan – 2
Marquette – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.6

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Marquette	Kansas City	West	3/14/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/10/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/13/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/13/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	East	3/11/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/11/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/14/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Saint Louis	San Jose	West	3/14/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/14/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/14 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/13

Registered five more updates overnight, though none of them impacted South Dakota State’s seed (still #13 or #14, slightly more likely as a #14). The one change impacting South Dakota State was a matchup picked of them vs. Marquette in Kansas City with Wisconsin/Temple the other part of that pod. They would love that obviously.

The Summit’s participant has been a #13 or #14 seed for each of the last six years after being a #15 or #16 seed for a four year stretch from 2003-2006. No Summit League team has pulled an upset (Oakland won an opening round game in 2005) since Bryce Drew and Valparaiso did it it 15 years ago in 1998. The last time the Summit League had a #12 seed was Valparaiso one year earlier in 1998 and the last time a Summit team (and the only time) was Missouri State who was a #9 seed back in 1990.

Considering when Bryce Drew hit his shot a grand total of TWO current Summit League members were part of the league, and one of those is departing Kansas City, it’s about time the Summit makes some new memories on the grand stage. With Denver and their lovely RPI arriving next season it’s time to make some noise nationally and raise the level of awareness of this league. Hopefully next year the winner is in a real conversation for a #12 seed instead of scrapping for a #13.

Oh and don’t get me started on where South Dakota State might have been had they not had that awful two game slide at Cal State Bakersfield and Murray State… might they actually be in the conversation for a #12 at 27-7 with an RPI that I calculate would be at #54 (as opposed to #63)? Perhaps not since they had only one top 50 win out of three tries (New Mexico) but a 4-4 record against the top 100 when you only had one home game and one quasi-home game is nothing to sneer at. Denver is in the conversation for a #12 seed and they only had one top 50 win (at home over #49 Louisiana Tech…) despite five tries including three at home. They also went 3-8 against the RPI top 100 with a full four of those games at home. It’s no slam dunk that they have a better resume, though the strength of schedule certainly helps… still they had just as many top 50 wins and one less top 100 win.

They need a reason to leave you our (or lower) though and what Denver does have is ZERO losses to a team outside the top 100 while South Dakota State had five, including a sub 300 loss. This is where the Summit’s lack of depth does hurt. We all know Oakland can play and in the Summit league dropping a game at Oakland is not a bad loss. But when it comes time to compare resumes and a loss at Oakland is a loss at a team ranked #150 it’s something the committee will count against you.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 3
Florida – 2
Marquette – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

13.7

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Marquette	Kansas City	West	3/13/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/10/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	14	2nd #14 seed			3/6/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/13/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	East	3/11/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/11/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/13/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Saint Louis	San Jose	West	3/13/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/12/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/13/13

Okay it’s officially South Dakota State in from the Summit League. We know they are thick in the battle for a #13 seed/#14 seed and hopefully can inch their way to the #13 seed. That might mean some help from around the country and we’re really only down to four leagues where some help might come. That’s because Valparaiso advanced to the NCAA Tournament today after beating Wright State. Remember that they were nearly out on Saturday until a late three at the buzzer sent them to the final. Now they are in and a real competitor for seeding with South Dakota State.

Tomorrow we’ll know if Bucknell is in or not. No guarantee they’d be ahead of South Dakota State but they probably are and it’s for sure that Lafayette wouldn’t be… so go Leopards!

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Bucknell – Patriot
3. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:
Valparaiso – Beat Wright State 62-54 – Horizon League Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT
Root against… Bucknell vs. Lafayette – 6:30 PM – Patriot League Tournament Final at Bucknell – CBS Sports Network

Summaries for each league:
Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th, Denver vs. Texas State and Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

A Look at Omaha’s Attendance–2012-13 Fall and Winter Sports

With the winter sports done with home competition and the spring sports just getting going I figured now is a good time to take a look at Omaha’s attendance this year and see how they’ve done to years past. I’ll be interested to see just how big a boost Omaha gets from going D1 and from the new marketing agreement with Nelligan Sports Marketing.

And a little warning before we get into this… apparently only hockey/men’s basketball are exact numbers… the rest are estimates. Still I think the trends are noticeable and things can be drawn from this.

Hockey

Omaha’s average attendance was off 8% from last year, the second straight year of dipping attendance. That despite having a team that was ranked much of the year and in contention for the WCHA title until late.

One big reason: less freebies this year as has been widely noted on twitter and message boards. Omaha probably made just as much money off of the season despite the drop in attendance. Also with Creighton being so good there was not as much attention on the hockey team as there might be in other years.

Still it’s less butts in the seats as total attendance was the lowest it’s been since 2006-07. A lot of this is due to no home games in the postseason, but total attendance was also off 11,000 from last year in same number of games. The Mavericks also had their lowest “high attendance” since the 2009-10 season, again probably due to less cheap/free tickets out there. It will be interesting to see how this trend goes over the next few years as things stabilize.

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012-13	18	7,233	-8%	7,756	130,200	13,650	3,921
2011-12	18	7,864	-2%	8,368	141,544	16,138	3,831
2010-11	20	7,994	+16%	8,552	159,886	15,137	4,793
2009-10	21	6,866	+10%	6,948	144,181	13,417	4,028
2008-09	21	6,216	-1%	6,664	130,528	10,111	4,328
2007-08	21	6,305	N/A	6,478	132,402	10,598	3,176

Men’s Basketball

On the other hand this is really good. Men’s Basketball saw good progress in all areas for the 2nd straight year. Lots of room to grow, but it’s on the right path. Still amazing how far it dropped off from 2007-08 to 2010-11. It was a nice time back then in the NCC. MIAA days were not good for basketball attendance.

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012-13	13	1,261	+41%	1,248	16,392	2,656	642
2011-12	11	894	+51%	N/A	9,833	1,949	179
2010-11	14*	592	-18%	620	7,104	1,328	375
2009-10	14	724	+10%	791	10,131	1,568	215
2008-09	12	653	-29%	706	7,838	915	200
2007-08	16	919	N/A	1,056	14,709	1,303	300

* – 2 games had no attendance listed so they were removed from the averages.

Men’s Soccer

In only its second year men’s soccer saw a huge drop in attendance. A lot of that is explained by the fact that last year’s big numbers were due to the first ever game (against a top 25 school to boot) and a special game at Werner Park. Still, a conference game average of 129 is really poor and there needs to be improvement with this sport. Hopefully playing games at Al F. Caniglia Field will help next year.

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012	5	248	-78%	129	1,241	442	111
2011	3	1,130	N/A	N/A	3,391	1,647	256

Volleyball

First off all realize that last year’s numbers are a bit weird. Omaha did host a tournament in which they played four games on September 2nd and 3rd. No attendance was recorded so I’ve left those out of the average. Regardless, Omaha drew 81% of this year’s total in just two games last year. Remarkable drop-off this year when Omaha got only 823 for Syracuse (compared to 2,429 for Kansas City and 1,208 for South Dakota in 2011). On a positive in terms of comparing it to 2010, Omaha did a very good job increasing total attendance and average attendance across all games and conference games. I wonder how many of those 3600+ tickets in 2011 were free… 

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012	10	450	-75%	387	4,502	823	193
2011	6*	1,819	+417%	N/A	3,637	2,429	1,208
2010	14^	352	-9%	345	4,225	436	297
2009	18	385	-20%	481	6,942	925	220
2008	16	480	-25%	491	7,680	918	284
2007	11	640	N/A	610	7,042	1,436	421

* – 6 games included four in a tournament with no recorded attendance. Not included in average.
^ – 14 games included two in a tournament with no recorded attendance. Not included in average

Women’s Basketball

Omaha’s seen some improvement over the last there years in terms of conference attendance, but the overall average has now dipped slightly in three straight season despite the move to D1 and better competition. It should be noted that until the 2010-11 season Omaha was playing a lot of women’s games as part of double-headers with men’s games. The women’s attendance would be taken sometime during the women’s game and probably included some people mostly showing up early for the men’s game. Still… these people were watching the women’s games and should be considered potential fans.

To not be able to increase attendance at all over the last two years is disappointing with the great stars Omaha had in Paige Frauendorfer and Jamie Nash. Amazing to look back a few season and see Omaha is still well off what they averaged in the final NCC season.

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012-13	17	354	-5%	413	6,023	651	157
2011-12	12	373	-4%	N/A	4,477	817	115
2010-11	13	387	-2%	395	5,029	589	212
2009-10	15	394	+24%	462	5,910	1,275	166
2008-09	15	319	-33%	403	4,786	525	91
2007-08	18	478	N/A	708	8,605	1,050	130

Women’s Soccer

Of Omaha’s 2,180 total fans this year a whopping 60% were from the Creighton and Iowa State games in the first weeks of the season. Disappointing to see attendance drop off on average from last year despite playing in a conference and having nearly twice as many games. Interesting to see that conference games have been worse and worse attended every year since 2007.

Year	# of Games	Avg. Attendance	% Change	Conf. Games Average	Total Attendance	High Attendance	Low Attendance
2012	8	272	-10%	117	2180	672	104
2011	3	302	+113%	N/A	905	604	137
2010	8	142	-1%	142	1133	316	62
2009	8	143	-36%	143	1146	219	72
2008	10	223	-26%	225	2227	307	122
2007	8	300	N/A	317	2400	400	200

All-in-all this is not a pretty picture for UNO Athletics. There is significant work to be done to get fan support back to the levels of the NCC days in many sports. Conference games in several sports show no more interest than non-conference games, so fans aren’t connecting yet with the regular opponents in Omaha’s new league. The luster from the D1 move is wearing off already and the Summit League did nothing to boost attendance in most sports as only one sport showed improvement from non-conference to conference games (Women’s Basketball).

It’s going to be a challenge to raise attendance across all sports. It’s an issue of marketing, ticketing, information, social media, all of it. There is no magic bullet here but there are also numerous things that can be done. Omaha clearly has the potential to have larger fan bases for all of their sports, it’s just about reaching them and getting those fans there.

At the very least it’s disappointing to see a drop in attendance over the last year. I thought with the move to D1, strong schedules with conference opponents, and the new marketing firm that things would look really good. I was really surprised to see most sports with lower average attendance  and while there are various reasons it’s not like you can look at these numbers and say it’s been a year of growth on the fan side.

Feel free to share any thoughts/ideas you may have in the comments below. I know personally I need to do a better job at trying to get to more games and get friends going with me, so I think most of us can take that suggestion to heart .

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/12/13

South Dakota State got their win on Monday to advance to the title game, so it’s definitely a successful day. The only other relevant game was Davidson playing in the Southern Conference Tournament Championship. The College of Charleston couldn’t do them any favors and lost that one so we’re down to only five teams likely ahead of South Dakota State that are left to qualify. That’s listed below. Since Denver is a future Summit member I’m rooting for them to qualify and two of the other four leagues to have upsets.

By tomorrow we’ll know if South Dakota State does end up with the Summit bid or if we’re switching to all North Dakota State talk all the time. I don’t think the seeding would be much different though it’s probably more like they are a #14 than South Dakota State. Tonight while the Summit League is deciding their participant the Horizon League will be doing the same. Let’s hope it’s Wright State since they’d be a step behind the Summit winner while Valparaiso might be ahead.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Bucknell – Patriot
3. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
5. Valparaiso – Horizon

How yesterday went:
Davidson – Beat College of Charleston 74-55 – Southern Conference Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT
Root against… Valparaiso vs. Wright State 21-11 (10-6) – 8 PM – Horizon League Tournament Final at Valparaiso – ESPN

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the final on Tuesday. They would possibly be ahead of South Dakota State. Wright State, their opponent in the final, would be a much safer team to have in the field.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/12

Six updated brackets today and the biggest thing is no one on our list is projecting South Dakota State as a #15 seed anymore… seems #14 or #13 is where they are headed if they win today. Not good development today is the number of people picking South Dakota State as a #14 seed playing at Michigan in Auburn Hills… that sounds like an awful situation to get thrown into.

Tomorrow we’ll know for sure what Summit League team is getting in and start to really narrow this down.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 3
Florida – 2
Arizona – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

13.7

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Arizona	San Jose	West	3/12/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/10/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	14	2nd #14 seed			3/6/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/11/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	East	3/11/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/11/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/12/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Saint Louis	San Jose	West	3/12/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	14	Michigan	Auburn Hills	West	3/12/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

2012-13 Omaha Swimming and Diving – Retrospect

Omaha can’t look back at this year as anything but a success. After a tough start against hard competition Omaha started the year 0-4 in duels before winning five of their last eight to finish the year at 5-7. They beat Division 1 opposition four times, Northern Iowa (twice), South Dakota State, and South Dakota. Omaha went to the Kansas Classic in November and finished 6th. They won the Grinnell Invite and came in 2nd to Northern Colorado in the Mutual of Omaha Invite.

In that Mutual of Omaha invite junior Maddie Hutt set school records in both the 100 breaststroke and 200 breaststroke breaking records set by Ashley Renshaw back in 2006 and 2003 respectively.

To end the year at the Summit League Championship the Mavericks set three school records and came in 3rd behind Oakland and IUPUI. One of those records that fell was Jessica Hessel’s 100 freestyle record, broken by freshman Natalie Renshaw.

Omaha’s future looks bright. Of the eight spots on the two relay teams that set school records, four were swam by seniors, two by juniors, one by a sophomore, and one by a freshman.

The other three relay teams all were inside the top five in school history and the 12 spots included three seniors, five juniors, one sophomore, and three freshman.

Of the top individual times at the school this year from the 14 events just two were by seniors. So returning those leading the other 12 events is huge. Four were led by juniors, four by sophomores, and four by freshman.

Omaha’s divers were a sophomore and freshman, and both showed promise this year.

It’s a good start to the Summit League for UNO and somewhere to build from into the future.

Team Best:
200 Yard Medley Relay – 1:44.23 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Cami Hansberry, Maddie Hutt, Jenna Foiles, Anna Haxby – School Record
400 Yard Medley Relay – 3:52.04 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Natalie Renshaw, Maddie Hutt, Jenna Foiles, Cami Hansberry
200 Yard Freestyle Relay – 1:33.96 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Whitney Korgan, Anna Haxby, Natalie Renshaw, Cami Hansberry – School Record
400 Yard Freestyle Relay – 3:29.51 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Whitney Korgan, Erin Wright, Natalie Renshaw, Cami Hansberry
800 Yard Freestyle Relay – 7:37.06 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Whitney Korgan, Erin Wright, Natalie Renshaw, Mattea Fosbender
50 Yard Freestyle – 23.57 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Natalie Renshaw
100 Yard Freestyle – 51.03 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Natalie Renshaw – School Record
200 Yard Freestyle – 1:53.27 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Erin Wright
500 Yard Freestyle – 5:10.51 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Mattea Fosbender
1000 Yard Freestyle – 11:02.91 – vs. Northern Iowa – 11/9/12 – Mattea Fosbender
1650 Yard Freestyle – 17:55.30 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Lexi Bergeron
100 Yard Backstroke – 57.08 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Natalie Renshaw
200 Yard Backstroke – 2:08.25 – Mutual of Omaha Invite – 11/30/12-12/1/12 – Natalie Renshaw
100 Yard Breaststroke – 1:04.08 – Mutual of Omaha Invite – 11/30/12-12/1/12 – Maddie Hutt – School Record
200 Yard Breaststroke – 2:17.91 – Mutual of Omaha Invite – 11/30/12-12/1/12 – Maddie Hutt – School Record
100 Yard Butterfly – 57.37 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Jennna Foiles
200 Yard Butterfly – 2:08.65 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Jenna Foiles
200 Yard Individual Medley – 2:08.47 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Erin Wright
400 Yard Individual Medley – 4:31.68 – Mutual of Omaha Invite – 11/30/12-12/1/12 – Lexi Bergeron
1 Meter Diving (Dual) – 236.10 – at Summit League Championship – 2/20/13-2/23/13 – Miranda Knpifer
1 Meter Diving (Meet) – 318.40 – at Grinnell Invite – 1/19/13 – Maddie Richardson
3 Meter Diving (Dual) – 242.33 – at Iowa State – 1/25/13 – Miranda Knipfer
3 Meter Diving (Meet) – 356.55 – at Grinnell Invite – 1/19/13 – Miranda Knipfer

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/11/13

All of my time were wrong yesterday it seems… might have to start finding a new source for this data since it’s not accurate… Regardless it was a great day for South Dakota State fans. With Oakland falling to Fort Wayne it would seem they have a slightly easier semifinal tonight. Additionally with the loss of Middle Tennessee State to FIU it seems like they might be out of the field and if they are that would bump everyone else up a spot. At the very least they’ll now steal the bid of another bubble team which wouldn’t change South Dakota State’s situation since they’ll be behind every at-large team anyways.

At the same time Stony Brook was falling to Albany in what is an awful for situation for them… The #1 seed playing the #4 seed on the #4 seed’s home court. What? Anyways they might have been behind the Jackrabbits but now there’s no worrying about that.

Davidson did win and they’re another that South Dakota State would love to see lose but there’s another chance for that still, tonight vs. the College of Charleston. Tomorrow is the Horizon League Championship and Wednesday is the Patriot League Championship, hoping for upsets of the top seeds who will be playing at home in those games. Then Thursday and Friday starts off the second weekend of conference tournaments and the four conferences we’ll have our eyes on in particular.

Here’s a top 6 list of teams South Dakota State would love to see lose. These teams are ranked by their projected seed. Anyways right now Valparaiso is projected as the final #13 seed on average, would love to see the Jackrabbits in that situation.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
3. Bucknell – Patriot
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
5. Valparaiso – Horizon
6. Davidson – Southern

How yesterday went:
Davidson – Beat Appalachian State 65-62 – Southern Conference Tournament Semifinals
Next up: College of Charleston 24-9 (14-4) on Monday in Southern Conference Tournament Final

Stony Brook – Lost to Albany 61-59 – America East Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Season over

Middle Tennessee State – Lost to FIU 61-57 – Sun Belt Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Season over, potential at-large bid still (unlikely)

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT
Root against… Davidson vs. College of Charleston 24-9 (14-4) – 6 PM – Southern Conference Tournament Final in Asheville, North Carolina – ESPN2

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the final on Tuesday. They would possibly be ahead of South Dakota State. Wright State, their opponent in the final, would be a much safer team to have in the field.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

Southern – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Asheville, North Carolina – Davidson at 24-7, 17-1 in conference, is the top threat to finish ahead of South Dakota State. Take your pick of underdogs here, the rest would probably be behind South Dakota State. Davidson is in the semifinals on Sunday against Appalachian State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/11

Six updated brackets today and some NEW SEEDINGS!!! For South Dakota State fans how big was Middle Tennessee State’s loss to FIU last night? So big that three bracket projections moved the Jackrabbits from a 14 to 13 after it happened! It’s a big turn of events as who would you rather play… Miami/Florida or Saint Louis? Yea… me too. Actually even Miami and Florida are very beatable teams, but yea I’d rather see them play Saint Louis.

FYI the Saint Louis matchup is part of a pod with Syracuse/Bucknell and #1 seed Gonzaga. I don’t think you’re out of your mind to think South Dakota State would be capable of making a run out of that area.

By tomorrow we’ll be down to just two teams who might take the Summit League auto-bid…. and in 36 hours or so we’ll know for sure who it is! Exciting two days ahead.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Miami – 2
Florida – 2
Louisville – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/7

3/8

3/9

3/10

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/15

3/16

South Dakota State

14

13.4

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

13.8

North Dakota State

14

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Western Illinois

15.6

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor	Team In	Seed	Opponent/Rank	Location	Regional	Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Dayton	South	3/11/13
Patrick Stevens	South Dakota State	14	Miami	San Jose	West	3/11/13
Beer’s Bracket	South Dakota State	14	Florida	Austin	East	3/10/13
Busting the Bracket	South Dakota State	14	2nd #14 seed			3/6/13
Bracketville	South Dakota State	15	Louisville	Lexington	Midwest	3/8/13
The Bracket Project	South Dakota State	14	1st #14 seed			3/8/13
Brad-ketology	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/11/13
Brad Evans	South Dakota State	13	4th #13 seed			3/11/13
Jerry Palm	South Dakota State	13	Saint Louis	San Jose	West	3/11/13
Joe Lunardi	South Dakota State	14	Miami	Austin	Midwest	3/8/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/4 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.