Maverick Maniac's Musings

June 6, 2013

2013 Summit League Review–How did UNO stack up in their first year?

UNO, in just their 2nd year of D1 transition and first year playing in a conference had what has to be considered a fantastic season. UNO got solid, if not fantastic starts from their soccer teams and ended the year watching the baseball team win the school’s first Summit League title. Here’s a breakdown of how the school’s teams did throughout the year in comparison to other schools.

Fall Season

Type of Results Regular Season Regular Season Regular Season Championship Standings Championship Standings Average Finish
School Men’s Soccer Women’s Soccer Volleyball Men’s Cross Country Women’s Cross Country
Oakland 1st 1st T-3rd 4th 4th 2.6
South Dakota State N/A 5th T-5th 1st 3rd 3.5
North Dakota State N/A T-3rd T-5th T-6th 1st 3.75
Fort Wayne T-4th 2nd 2nd 8th 6th 4.4
South Dakota N/A 9th T-5th 2nd 2nd 4.5
IUPUI 6th 8th 1st 3rd 7th 5
Kansas City 2nd 6th T-3rd T-6th 9th 5.2
Western Illinois 3rd T-3rd 8th 5th 8th 5.4
Omaha T-4th 7th 9th N/A 5th 6.25

Winter Season

Type of Results Regular Season Regular Season Championship Standings Championship Standings Championship Standings Championship Standings Average Finish
School Men’s Basketball Women’s Basketball Men’s Swimming and Diving Women’s Swimming and Diving Men’s Indoor Track and Field Women’s Indoor Track and Field
South Dakota State T-1st 1st 2nd 4th 4th 5th 2.8
North Dakota State 3rd 7th N/A N/A 2nd 1st 3.25
IUPUI 9th 2nd 3rd 2nd N/A N/A 4
Omaha 6th T-5th N/A 3rd N/A 2nd 4
South Dakota T-7th 3rd 6th 5th 1st 3rd 4.2
Oakland 4th 9th 1st 1st 6th 6th 4.5
Western Illinois T-1st T-5th 5th 7th 5th 7th 5
Kansas City T-7th 8th N/A N/A 3rd 4th 5.5
Fort Wayne 5th 4th N/A N/A N/A 8th 5.7

Spring Season

Type of Results Regular Season Regular Season Regular Season Regular Season Championship Standings Championship Standings Championship Standings Championship Standings Average Finish
School Baseball Softball Men’s Tennis Women’s Tennis Men’s Golf Women’s Golf Men’s Outdoor T&F Women’s Outdoor T&F
NDSU 4th 1st N/A N/A 5th 1st 1st 1st 2.2
Kansas City N/A 5th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 4th 5th 2.9
South Dakota N/A 4th N/A 4th 2nd 9th 2nd 2nd 3.8
SDSU 2nd 8th 2nd 3rd 3rd 7th 3rd 4th 4
Omaha 1st 2nd 6th 6th 8th 4th N/A 3rd 4.3
Fort Wayne 6th 3rd 3rd 1st 9th 8th N/A 8th 5.4
Western Illinois 5th 6th 4th 8th 4th 5th 5th 7th 5.5
Oakland 3rd 9th N/A 5th 6th 6th 6th 6th 5.9
IUPUI N/A 7th 5th 7th 7th 3rd 7th 9th 6.4

Overall Averages

School Fall  Average Fall Sports Winter Average Winter Sports Spring Average Spring Sports Total Sports Average Finish
NDSU 3.75 4 3.25 4 2.2 6 14 2.93
SDSU 3.5 4 2.8 6 4 8 18 3.5
South Dakota 4.5 4 4.2 6 3.8 6 16 4.13
Kansas City 5.2 5 5.5 4 2.9 7 16 4.25
Oakland 2.6 5 4.5 6 5.9 7 18 4.5
Omaha 6.25 4 4 4 4.3 7 15 4.73
Fort Wayne 4.4 5 5.7 3 5.4 7 15 5.13
Western Illinois 5.4 5 5 6 5.5 8 19 5.32
IUPUI 5 5 4 4 6.4 7 16 5.38

The tale of the tape is kind of interesting here. Knowing that Kansas City and Oakland won’t be around next year of the remaining seven schools you can see where the balance of power definitely is, the Dakotas. North Dakota State seems to be the premier program in the league right now with South Dakota State their closest competitor. It’s a bit of a further drop to South Dakota who was never spectacular as their best average was only 3.8 in the spring. they were however consistent with their worst average being only 4.5 in the fall.

Omaha has to feel fairly good about how their first year went. They were a bit off the pace in the fall as their 6.25 average was the 2nd worst of any school for any season (IUPUI had a 6.4 average in the spring) but they were much stronger in the winter and the spring as they got their season long average down to 4.73.

Historical Comparison

I wondered how UNO stacked up compared to the last few schools to move into the Summit. Now one thing to note here is that Fort Wayne began their transition in 2001, NDSU and SDSU began in 2004, and South Dakota began in 2008. None of the schools went through the kind of transition UNO is dealing with where they will spend 3 years competing in the Summit League while not being eligible for the postseason. All were able to build their programs much more before their first Summit competition. So how does UNO stack up in terms of average finish?

School Fall  Average Fall Sports Winter Average Winter Sports Spring Average Spring Sports Total Sports Average Finish
NDSU 2007-08 4.75 4 2.25 4 3.8 6 14 3.64
SDSU 2007-08 2.75 4 4.5 6 4.8 8 18 4.22
Omaha 2012-13 6.25 4 4 4 4.3 7 15 4.73
South Dakota 2011-12 6.25 4 4 6 5.3 6 16 5.06
Fort Wayne 2007-08 5.6 5 6 3 5.9 7 15 5.8

Few things of note… the Summit League was only 9 teams this year as opposed to 10 last year and 10 in 2007-08. Was that an advantage to Omaha? Probably slightly. But in that 2007-08 season there were only 7 returning members as three new members joined. So that was certainly an advantage for NDSU, SDSU and Fort Wayne.

NDSU had an amazing first year in the Summit and were extremely competitive. They stand out from the pack in this table. I think the case could be made though that Omaha’s season was the 2nd best of these five. Yes they were a half spot worse on average than SDSU five years ago, but that season for SDSU came in their last season of transition as opposed to Omaha’s second. I think this seems to show the future is very bright for UNO.

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March 17, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/17-Final Look!

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 8:39 am

Nothing will really change from here… the last games to be played won’t impact South Dakota State’s seed, perhaps opponent though..

Anyways more good news as on average more people see South Dakota State as a #13 seed than a #14 seed. I say it’s likely they are a #13 now, but definitely not for sure. We’ll see tonight…

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Arizona – 2
Kansas State – 1
Ohio State – 1
Florida – 1
Wisconsin – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.3
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 13 Kansas State San Jose East 3/16/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 13 Arizona San Jose West 3/17/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Ohio State Dayton Midwest 3/15/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/13/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin Midwest 3/17/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed     3/16/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 3rd #13 seed     3/15/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 2nd #13 seed     3/16/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Arizona San Jose East 3/17/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 13 Wisconsin San Jose East 3/16/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/15 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #2 seed vs. Weber State. He also has Western Illinois as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. Delaware.

March 16, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/16

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 7:17 pm

South Dakota State has gotten basically no help from the last four conference tournaments. Still is a chance for help from the WAC and Southland finals this evening, so we’ll see.

Here’s how things look before that all shakes out… Final update tomorrow.

At this point it’s really 50-50 between 13 and 14 seed depending who you ask. We’ll know for sure tomorrow evening but boy would an upset tonight sure help.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 2
Florida – 1
Ohio State – 1
Syracuse – 1
Wisconsin – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/15/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Ohio State Dayton Midwest 3/15/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/13/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/16/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed     3/16/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 3rd #13 seed     3/15/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 3rd #13 seed     3/16/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Syracuse Austin West 3/16/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 13 Wisconsin San Jose East 3/16/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/15 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #2 seed vs. Weber State. He also has Western Illinois as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. Delaware.

March 15, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/15/13 & 3/16/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:32 am

I was all excited to write today of how Louisiana Tech’s loss and Denver’s loss yesterday was a big boost to South Dakota State’s seeding as they would be ahead of the WAC winner. Then I remembered New Mexico State…. 22-10 on the year with a RPI of 56, they are certainly a team that could be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. So we’re not done rooting against the WAC’s top teams… they need to go out too.

In the other game out West, Weber State had no problems with Northern Arizona. They are in the Big Sky though and it’s not likely that they would be ahead of South Dakota State anyways.

So we enter semifinal Friday and championship Saturday. I’ll be out of town overnight so this will have to be your update for most of the rest of the way. I might be able to throw a quick one up on Saturday evening before the WAC championship game, Southland Championship, and the Big Sky Championship. The MAC Championship game is a lot cause for me though, it’ll start before I’m home.

These are the top three teams to see knocked off this weekend… Two of these and I think South Dakota State is a #13. One and it’s likely. None and it might still be 50-50… but it’s definitely less likely.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. New Mexico State – WAC
3. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:

Weber State – Beat Northern Arizona 84-58 – Big Sky Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: North Dakota 16-15 (12-8) in Big Sky Tournament Semifinal on Friday in Missoula, Montana

Denver – Lost to Texas State 72-68 – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: Regular season over, not going to be at-large team

Louisiana Tech – Lost to UTSA 73-67 – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal
Next up: Regular season over, not going to be at-large team

Teams to root against tonight– 3/15:
All times CT

Root against… Stephen F. Austin vs. Southeastern Louisiana – 5 PM – Southland Conference Tournament Semifinal in Katy, Texas – ESPN3
Root against… Akron vs. Kent State – 5:30 PM – MAC Tournament Semifinal in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN3
Root against… Weber State vs. North Dakota – 6:30 PM – Big Sky Tournament Semifinal in Missoula, Montana
Root against… New Mexico State vs. Texas State – 8 PM – WAC Tournament Semifinal in Las Vegas, Nevada
Root against… Ohio vs. Western Michigan – 8 PM – MAC Tournament Semifinal in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN3
Root against… Montana vs. Northern Colorado – 9:05 PM – Big Sky Tournament Semifinal at Montana

Teams to root against tomorrow– 3/16:
All times CT

Root against… Akron/Ohio vs. TBD – 5:30 PM – MAC Tournament Final in Cleveland, Ohio – ESPN2
Root against… Stephen F. Austin vs. TBD – 7:30 PM – Southland Conference Tournament Final in Katy, Texas – ESPN2
Root against… Weber State/Montana vs. TBD – 8 PM – Big Sky Tournament Final in Missoula, Montana – ESPNU
Root against… New Mexico State vs. TBD – 10 PM – WAC Tournament Final in Las Vegas, Nevada – ESPNU

Summaries for each league:
MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio faces Western Michigan 20-11 (10-6) while Akron takes on Kent State 20-12 (9-7) in the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – With both Denver and Louisiana Tech out I thought we might be done worrying about the WAC…. Instead enter New Mexico State who might have a good enough resume to jump the Jackrabbits as well. They take on Texas State 12-21 (5-13) on Friday in the semifinals. Only Texas-Arlington is left with a winning record 18-12 (11-7). Oh boy…

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. They opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals against Southeastern Louisiana 13-17 (10-8). Thankfully Northwestern State at 21-8 (15-3) is on the other side of the bracket so they should get a good game in the final.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State plays against North Dakota 16-15 (12-8) while Montana takes on Northern Colorado 13-17 (10-10) in the two semifinals. Clearly the chances of an upset here are not good, but it probably isn’t necessary.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/15

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:08 am

While our five updates today don’t show any actual movement in seeds, there were two people that moved South Dakota State up a spot from 4th #13 to 3rd #13. It’s something.

Also interesting is that 3 of our projections are very out of date (Monday or earlier). Of the 7 that aren’t out of date, 4 have South Dakota State as a #13 seed. Gotta be close at this point. I think they are 60-40 for being a #13 personally.

By the way, I’ll be out of town overnight tonight so no update tomorrow morning. I’ll check in with an update Saturday evening and then again Sunday morning for the final projections.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Florida – 3
Michigan – 2
Arizona – 1
Saint Louis – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6  
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose West 3/15/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/13/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/15/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills East 3/11/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 3rd #13 seed     3/15/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 3rd #13 seed     3/15/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/15/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/14/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State will (I’m sure) be in a postseason competition. Not sure which one. Since NIT isn’t going to happen for anyone I’ll just share the one guy out there crazy enough to predict CBI/CIT teams.

Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 14, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/14/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 2:23 pm

South Dakota State in it’s first day of knowing they were in didn’t get any help from Lafayette as Bucknell defeated the Leopards by eight to reach the tournament. This means that the Jackrabbits really have just a few leagues left where an upset could help them. The MAC, the WAC, and the Southland.

In the MAC anyone but Akron or Ohio would be a big boost for the Jackrabbits while in the Southland anyone but Stephen F. Austin would help out. In the WAC I’m rooting for Denver since they’ll bring some extra attention to the Summit League since they are joining next year, but if they can’t win it we definitely don’t want to see Louisiana Tech in the field.

South Dakota State is right on the edge between #13 and #14 seeds right now but with a couple of upsets in these leagues that #13 seed would be much more likely.

Today you can root for Denver against Texas State and against Louisiana Tech when they play UTSA. The only other relevant game is in Missoula, Montana where Weber State takes on Northern Arizona. While Montana and Weber State are probably still behind South Dakota State an upset certainly wouldn’t hurt. Tomorrow will be the semifinals in all four leagues we’re watching with the finals on Saturday.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
3. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:

Bucknell – Beat Lafayette 64-56 – Patriot League Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Weber State vs. Northern Arizona – Big Sky Tournament Quarterfinal in Missoula, Montana.
Root for… Denver vs. Texas State – 4:30 PM – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal in Las Vegas, Nevada
Root against… Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA – 8 PM – WAC Tournament Quarterfinal in Las Vegas, Nevada

Summaries for each league:
MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th, Denver vs. Texas State and Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/14

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 1:51 pm

Five updates again today and one of them moved South Dakota State from a #14 seed to a #13 seed. According to our ten panelists it’s really almost 50-50 on which one they’ll be at this point, slightly more like it’s a #14. One more upset could tilt the seeding in their favor.

On the subject of seeding and Summit League teams and that topic… if Denver does make the NCAA Tournament this year we can look forward to next year being the first time since 1991-92 that two of the teams playing in the Summit League were in the NCAA Tournament the year before.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Florida – 3
Michigan – 2
Marquette – 1
Saint Louis – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6    
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Marquette Kansas City West 3/14/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/13/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/13/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills East 3/11/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/11/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/14/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/14/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/14/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/14 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 13, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:00 am

Registered five more updates overnight, though none of them impacted South Dakota State’s seed (still #13 or #14, slightly more likely as a #14). The one change impacting South Dakota State was a matchup picked of them vs. Marquette in Kansas City with Wisconsin/Temple the other part of that pod. They would love that obviously.

The Summit’s participant has been a #13 or #14 seed for each of the last six years after being a #15 or #16 seed for a four year stretch from 2003-2006. No Summit League team has pulled an upset (Oakland won an opening round game in 2005) since Bryce Drew and Valparaiso did it it 15 years ago in 1998. The last time the Summit League had a #12 seed was Valparaiso one year earlier in 1998 and the last time a Summit team (and the only time) was Missouri State who was a #9 seed back in 1990.

Considering when Bryce Drew hit his shot a grand total of TWO current Summit League members were part of the league, and one of those is departing Kansas City, it’s about time the Summit makes some new memories on the grand stage. With Denver and their lovely RPI arriving next season it’s time to make some noise nationally and raise the level of awareness of this league. Hopefully next year the winner is in a real conversation for a #12 seed instead of scrapping for a #13.

Oh and don’t get me started on where South Dakota State might have been had they not had that awful two game slide at Cal State Bakersfield and Murray State… might they actually be in the conversation for a #12 at 27-7 with an RPI that I calculate would be at #54 (as opposed to #63)? Perhaps not since they had only one top 50 win out of three tries (New Mexico) but a 4-4 record against the top 100 when you only had one home game and one quasi-home game is nothing to sneer at. Denver is in the conversation for a #12 seed and they only had one top 50 win (at home over #49 Louisiana Tech…) despite five tries including three at home. They also went 3-8 against the RPI top 100 with a full four of those games at home. It’s no slam dunk that they have a better resume, though the strength of schedule certainly helps… still they had just as many top 50 wins and one less top 100 win.

They need a reason to leave you our (or lower) though and what Denver does have is ZERO losses to a team outside the top 100 while South Dakota State had five, including a sub 300 loss. This is where the Summit’s lack of depth does hurt. We all know Oakland can play and in the Summit league dropping a game at Oakland is not a bad loss. But when it comes time to compare resumes and a loss at Oakland is a loss at a team ranked #150 it’s something the committee will count against you.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 3
Florida – 2
Marquette – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Marquette Kansas City West 3/13/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed 3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/13/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills East 3/11/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed 3/11/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed 3/13/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/13/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/12/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/13/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:30 am

Okay it’s officially South Dakota State in from the Summit League. We know they are thick in the battle for a #13 seed/#14 seed and hopefully can inch their way to the #13 seed. That might mean some help from around the country and we’re really only down to four leagues where some help might come. That’s because Valparaiso advanced to the NCAA Tournament today after beating Wright State. Remember that they were nearly out on Saturday until a late three at the buzzer sent them to the final. Now they are in and a real competitor for seeding with South Dakota State.

Tomorrow we’ll know if Bucknell is in or not. No guarantee they’d be ahead of South Dakota State but they probably are and it’s for sure that Lafayette wouldn’t be… so go Leopards!

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Bucknell – Patriot
3. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland

How yesterday went:

Valparaiso – Beat Wright State 62-54 – Horizon League Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Bucknell vs. Lafayette – 6:30 PM – Patriot League Tournament Final at Bucknell – CBS Sports Network

Summaries for each league:
Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th, Denver vs. Texas State and Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both probably are behind South Dakota State, but not by much. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

March 12, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/12/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 2:55 pm

South Dakota State got their win on Monday to advance to the title game, so it’s definitely a successful day. The only other relevant game was Davidson playing in the Southern Conference Tournament Championship. The College of Charleston couldn’t do them any favors and lost that one so we’re down to only five teams likely ahead of South Dakota State that are left to qualify. That’s listed below. Since Denver is a future Summit member I’m rooting for them to qualify and two of the other four leagues to have upsets.

By tomorrow we’ll know if South Dakota State does end up with the Summit bid or if we’re switching to all North Dakota State talk all the time. I don’t think the seeding would be much different though it’s probably more like they are a #14 than South Dakota State. Tonight while the Summit League is deciding their participant the Horizon League will be doing the same. Let’s hope it’s Wright State since they’d be a step behind the Summit winner while Valparaiso might be ahead.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Bucknell – Patriot
3. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
5. Valparaiso – Horizon

How yesterday went:
Davidson – Beat College of Charleston 74-55 – Southern Conference Tournament Final
Next up: Qualified for NCAA Tournament

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Valparaiso vs. Wright State 21-11 (10-6) – 8 PM – Horizon League Tournament Final at Valparaiso – ESPN

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the final on Tuesday. They would possibly be ahead of South Dakota State. Wright State, their opponent in the final, would be a much safer team to have in the field.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/12

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 2:39 pm

Six updated brackets today and the biggest thing is no one on our list is projecting South Dakota State as a #15 seed anymore… seems #14 or #13 is where they are headed if they win today. Not good development today is the number of people picking South Dakota State as a #14 seed playing at Michigan in Auburn Hills… that sounds like an awful situation to get thrown into.

Tomorrow we’ll know for sure what Summit League team is getting in and start to really narrow this down.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 3
Florida – 2
Arizona – 1
Saint Louis – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7        
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A        
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A        

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose West 3/12/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed     3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/11/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills East 3/11/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/11/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/12/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/12/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/12/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 11, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/11/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 8:59 am

All of my time were wrong yesterday it seems… might have to start finding a new source for this data since it’s not accurate… Regardless it was a great day for South Dakota State fans. With Oakland falling to Fort Wayne it would seem they have a slightly easier semifinal tonight. Additionally with the loss of Middle Tennessee State to FIU it seems like they might be out of the field and if they are that would bump everyone else up a spot. At the very least they’ll now steal the bid of another bubble team which wouldn’t change South Dakota State’s situation since they’ll be behind every at-large team anyways.

At the same time Stony Brook was falling to Albany in what is an awful for situation for them… The #1 seed playing the #4 seed on the #4 seed’s home court. What? Anyways they might have been behind the Jackrabbits but now there’s no worrying about that.

Davidson did win and they’re another that South Dakota State would love to see lose but there’s another chance for that still, tonight vs. the College of Charleston. Tomorrow is the Horizon League Championship and Wednesday is the Patriot League Championship, hoping for upsets of the top seeds who will be playing at home in those games. Then Thursday and Friday starts off the second weekend of conference tournaments and the four conferences we’ll have our eyes on in particular.

Here’s a top 6 list of teams South Dakota State would love to see lose. These teams are ranked by their projected seed. Anyways right now Valparaiso is projected as the final #13 seed on average, would love to see the Jackrabbits in that situation.

1. Akron/Ohio – MAC
2. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
3. Bucknell – Patriot
4. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
5. Valparaiso – Horizon
6. Davidson – Southern

How yesterday went:
Davidson – Beat Appalachian State 65-62 – Southern Conference Tournament Semifinals
Next up: College of Charleston 24-9 (14-4) on Monday in Southern Conference Tournament Final

Stony Brook – Lost to Albany 61-59 – America East Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Season over

Middle Tennessee State – Lost to FIU 61-57 – Sun Belt Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Season over, potential at-large bid still (unlikely)

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Davidson vs. College of Charleston 24-9 (14-4) – 6 PM – Southern Conference Tournament Final in Asheville, North Carolina – ESPN2

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the final on Tuesday. They would possibly be ahead of South Dakota State. Wright State, their opponent in the final, would be a much safer team to have in the field.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

Southern – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Asheville, North Carolina – Davidson at 24-7, 17-1 in conference, is the top threat to finish ahead of South Dakota State. Take your pick of underdogs here, the rest would probably be behind South Dakota State. Davidson is in the semifinals on Sunday against Appalachian State.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/11

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 8:36 am

Six updated brackets today and some NEW SEEDINGS!!! For South Dakota State fans how big was Middle Tennessee State’s loss to FIU last night? So big that three bracket projections moved the Jackrabbits from a 14 to 13 after it happened! It’s a big turn of events as who would you rather play… Miami/Florida or Saint Louis? Yea… me too. Actually even Miami and Florida are very beatable teams, but yea I’d rather see them play Saint Louis.

FYI the Saint Louis matchup is part of a pod with Syracuse/Bucknell and #1 seed Gonzaga. I don’t think you’re out of your mind to think South Dakota State would be capable of making a run out of that area.

By tomorrow we’ll be down to just two teams who might take the Summit League auto-bid…. and in 36 hours or so we’ll know for sure who it is! Exciting two days ahead.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Miami – 2
Florida – 2
Louisville – 1
Saint Louis – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8          
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A          
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A          

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Miami San Jose West 3/11/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed     3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 15 Louisville Lexington Midwest 3/8/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed     3/8/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/11/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed     3/11/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/11/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin Midwest 3/8/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/4 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 10, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/10/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:30 am

LOTS of games yesterday to recap… only a few today with a rooting interest (or overall). Today your best bets from a rooting against standpoint is Davidson in the Southern Conference Semifinals against Appalachian State and Middle Tennessee State against FIU in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Semifinals. Both of those two teams are probably ahead of South Dakota State’s current spot and one would surely be out with a loss while the other would have a stressful wait.

As to why I’m doing this and only writing about South Dakota State’s potential seed when they haven’t won the Summit League tournament yet? Well we don’t know much about what people are predicting in terms of seeding if another team got into the field. Of the many brackets out there, only a few don’t have the Jackrabbits as the Summit League’s entry. They are also the #1 seed in the conference tournament and with it being played in their backyard are the favorite to me. If they get knocked out this will certainly take a 180 turn and start looking at teams that might help another Summit member’s seeding, but for now we stick with the Jackrabbits.

Let’s start with the teams the cruised yesterday in situations were a loss would have been awesome, but unlikely. All of these teams have much better chances of losing a later game than yesterday’s.

  • Davidson over Georgia Southern in the Southern Conference Quarterfinals
  • Stony Brook over Binghamton in the America East Conference Tournament
  • Stephen F. Austin over Texas A&M Corpus Christi in Southland regular season
  • Middle Tennessee State over Louisiana-Lafayette in Sun Belt Conference Tournament Quarterfinals
  • Montana over Northern Arizona in Big Sky regular season
  • Weber State over Eastern Washington in Big Sky regular season

Now let’s move on to the two teams that got into the bracket yesterday. First up was Harvard. Now the story coming into Saturday was Harvard was in line for a one-game playoff with Princeton to decide the Ivy League if they both won out in the regular season. That didn’t come to fruition as Harvard went out and beat Cornell while Princeton dropped a game for the 2nd straight night, this time at Brown. The loss ended the Ivy League race and means Harvard is into the NCAA Tournament field. They have definite potential to be seeded right around South Dakota State, so an extra loss would have been nice. We’ll just have to see where it shakes out.

The other game we were watching was the Ohio Valley Conference Final. This game between Belmont and Murray State was a fantastic battle and went to OT before Belmont could escape with a narrow two point win on a last second shot. The discussion on twitter had Belmont squarely on the 50-50 bubble, but that’s all over now. The Bruins are in the field and will be seeded ahead of South Dakota State or any Summit member.

There are two other regular season games of interest yesterday. First of all Ohio tried to give away a share of the MAC regular season title against Miami (Ohio) but did manage to come back and win. They’ll be the #2 seed to Akron’s #1 in the tournament and this one is just screaming for someone like Kent State to win the tournament and take the auto-bid away from these two. Would certainly be what we are rooting for here.

The other game matched up future Summit member Denver with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs already had a share of the regular season title and Denver was trying to get their half. They did so in a big way running to a 24-point win. Neither team can afford to hope for an at-large at this point but both teams could be ahead of South Dakota State if they get in. Denver seems the easy choice to root for the in their tournament since having two members of next year’s Summit League in the tournament would be quite nice.

In the Patriot League Tournament Semifinals Bucknell fought off a tough Army team and will now host the final against Lafayette on Wednesday. An upset there could move South Dakota State up a notch.

In the Horizon League Tournament Semifinals there was drama a plenty. Wright State upset Detroit on a last second shot from basically behind the backboard. Crazy shot. That means there’s no risk of Detroit sneaking ahead of South Dakota State. We almost had a guarantee that the Horizon League winner would be a low seed, but then Valparaiso hit a game-winning three at the buzzer to knock off Green Bay and so they’ll host the final on Tuesday and could still be ahead of any Summit League winner.

Finally there were two losses that eliminated teams that probably wouldn’t have been in front of South Dakota State, but definitely won’t anymore! Loyola (Maryland) lost to Manhattan in the Metro Atlantic Tournament Quarterfinals while South Alabama lost to Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals. No problems with those teams stealing a potential spot now.

Here’s a top 7 list though of teams South Dakota State would love to see lose. These teams are ranked by their projected seed. Middle Tennessee State is way ahead of South Dakota State but might get knocked out of the dance if they don’t win their conference tournaments. Anyways right now Stephen F. Austin is projected as the final #13 seed on average, so if three of these teams get knocked off South Dakota State might be able to move up… These projections are from yesterday since the site I use isn’t loading this morning…

1. Middle Tennessee State – Sun Belt
2. Akron/Ohio – MAC
3. Louisiana Tech/Denver – WAC
4. Bucknell – Patriot
5. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
6. Valparaiso – Horizon
7. Davidson – Southern

How yesterday went:
Davidson – Beat Georgia Southern 86-59 – Southern Conference Tournament Quarterfinals
Next up: Appalachian State 15-15 (10-8) on Sunday

Ohio – Beat Miami (Ohio) 58-54 – MAC regular season
Next up: TBD on Friday in MAC Conference Tournament Semifinals

Bucknell – Beat Army 78-70 – Patriot League Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Lafayette on Wednesday in Patriot League Championship Game

Harvard – Beat Cornell 65-56 – Ivy League regular season
Next up: Clinched NCAA Tournament Berth

Princeton – Lost at Brown 80-67 – Ivy League regular season
Next up: Season is over

Detroit – Lost to Wright State 56-56 – Horizon League Tournament Semifinal
Next up: Season is over

Stony Brook – Beat Binghamton 72-49 – America East Tournament Quarterfinals
Next up: Albany on Sunday in America East Semifinals

Belmont – Beat Murray State 70-68 (OT) – OVC Tournament Final
Next up: Clinched NCAA Tournament Berth

Louisiana Tech – Lost to Denver (YAY FUTURE SUMMIT MEMBER!) 78-54 – WAC regular season
Next up (for both): TBD on Thursday in WAC Tournament Quarterfinals

Stephen F. Austin – Beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 58-49 – Southland regular season
Next up: TBD on Friday in Southland Tournament Semifinals

Middle Tennessee State – Beat Louisiana-Lafayette 88-61 – Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals
Next up: FIU on Sunday in Sun Belt Tournament Semifinals

Valparaiso – Beat Green Bay 70-69 – Horizon League Tournament Semifinal
Next up: Wright State on Tuesday in Horizon League Championship Game

Weber State – Beat Eastern Washington 65-57 – Big Sky regular season
Next up: Northern Arizona on Thursday in Big Sky Conference Tournament Quarterfinals

Montana – Beat Northern Arizona 63-50 – Big Sky regular season
Next up: TBD on Friday in Big Sky Conference Tournament Semifinals

Loyola (Maryland) – Lost to Manhattan 55-52 – Metro Atlantic Tournament Quarterfinals
Next up: Season is Over

South Alabama – Lost to Western Kentucky 62-59 – Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals
Next up: Season is Over

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Stony Brook vs. Albany 22-10 (9-7) – 4 PM – America East Tournament Semifinals in Albany, New York – ESPN3
Root against… Davidson vs. Appalachian State 15-15 (10-8) – 5 PM – Southern Conference Tournament Semifinals in Asheville, North Carolina – ESPN3
Root against… Middle Tennessee State vs. FIU 17-13 (11-9) – 6:30 PM – Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals in Hot Springs, Arkansas

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the final on Tuesday. They would possibly be ahead of South Dakota State. Wright State, their opponent in the final, would be a much safer team to have in the field.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here as they probably slightly ahead of South Dakota State right now. They’ll face Lafayette in the conference title game on their home court on Wednesday, so it’s asking a lot of the 18-14 Leopards but it would sure be a help to South Dakota State.

Southern – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Asheville, North Carolina – Davidson at 24-7, 17-1 in conference, is the top threat to finish ahead of South Dakota State. Take your pick of underdogs here, the rest would probably be behind South Dakota State. Davidson is in the semifinals on Sunday against Appalachian State.

Sun Belt – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Hot Springs, Arkansas – In this one Summit fans maybe want to see Middle Tennessee State knocked off. Although with as far ahead of South Dakota State as they probably are, might not really that bad if they win since they might be in regardless. Middle Tennessee State plays FIU in the semifinals on Sunday.

America East – Saturday, March 9th – Saturday March 16th in Albany, New York and campus site – This tournament has the quarterfinals and semifinals in Albany before having the title game on the home court of the highest seed. Only Stony Brook is a threat to South Dakota State. They’ll play a semifinal game against home town Albany on Sunday.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio (#2) and Akron (#1) have byes until the semifinals on Friday, March 15th.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – At this point it looks like both Louisiana Tech and Denver need to win the WAC tournament to get it. It also looks like both have the potential to be seeded ahead of South Dakota State. With all that in mind, I’m rooting for the future Summit League member in Denver. Don’t hose me Pioneers by snubbing us for the Missouri Valley though… Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 26-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-13 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Stephen F. Austin opens tournament play on Friday in the semifinals.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at Montana, the top seed. The top teams (Montana (#1) at 22-6 and Weber State (#2) at 23-5) both could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. Weber State opens play on Thursday in the quarterfinals against Northern Arizona while Montana waits for a semifinal game against an opponent yet to be determined.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/10

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:00 am

Very little to update today and no seeding change as the Jackrabbits have been sitting at 14.1 in our average for almost two weeks. I will note that Denver is a team that might get seeded slightly ahead of South Dakota State as a #13 seed now instead of Louisiana Tech. Having a future Summit member as a #13 and perhaps one current one would be a great statement to make, especially if they could get on a run against a #4/#5 seed area that has some weaknesses. The attention it could bring to our little league heading into next year would be a big deal.

Of the Summit’s nine members for next year, five should finish this year in the top 150 RPI and three in the top 100. We need to see a league wide push to take care of some of those non-conference games and help the league RPI as a whole. The potential is there for this league to take the next step.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Miami – 3
Arizona – 1
Michigan State – 1
Louisville – 1

2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Michigan State Lexington South 3/8/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin West 3/9/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin South 3/9/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed 3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 15 Louisville Lexington Midwest 3/8/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/8/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/8/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/9/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 14 Arizona Salt Lake City West 3/10/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin Midwest 3/8/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/8 NIT – South Dakota State a #7 seed if they don’t make the NCAA tournament.
Bracket Project – 3/4 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/9 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. Northwestern State. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 9, 2013

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/9/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:16 am

There were definitely a few positives for South Dakota State and Summit League fans last night. We’ll start with one that’s a gray area: Belmont. The Belmont is a solid NCAA team at this point it looks like. Their average seed on the Bracket Project Matrix is 11.64 while South Dakota State’s is 14.08. There’s two questions here… would a Belmont loss actually knock them out of the NCAA tournament? I’m really not sure and I think it’s 50-50. But IF they get in is there any doubt they are ahead of South Dakota State? I don’t think so. If they lose today to Murray State, the Racers are in the field and it’s possible that Belmont would still be. Is Murray State ahead of South Dakota State? I don’t think so… but who knows. They did beat South Dakota State a few weeks ago. So what do you root for her? I’m still going for Murray State. Think it could really knock Belmont out and it puts a team into the field who South Dakota State lost too, making that loss slightly less sour.

In the Ivy League we saw Harvard win over Columbia while Princeton lost at Yale. Those two results mean if each teams wins out (Harvard has one game left, Princeton has two) they’ll have a one-game playoff on March 17th. Do Summit League fans care who wins that one? Possibly not… both teams are a half step behind South Dakota State it seems. That said any losses would certainly make it more clear. And the luster of a one-game playoff and national attention around it could boost a team’s image ever so slightly.

Then there’s Akron. The Zips were one of those mid-majors with a good resume and a lot going for them a week ago at 23-14 (13-0). Then they lost two of three, the latest after their starting PG got busted on drug charges. Ouch. They are a wounded team and probably won’t make the tournament without winning their conference tournament. Them losing to Kent State was a very good thing for South Dakota State.

Today is a REALLY busy day as there are potential rooting interests in 16 games across 12 conferences. See below for the rundown of who’s playing who.

Here’s a top 8 list though of teams South Dakota State would love to see lose. These teams are ranked by their projected seed. Middle Tennessee State and Belmont are way ahead of South Dakota State but might get knocked out of the dance if they don’t win their conference tournaments. Anyways right now Stephen F. Austin is projected as the final #13 seed on average, so if three of these teams get knocked off South Dakota State might be able to move up…

1. Middle Tennessee State – Sun Belt
2. Belmont – Ohio Valley
3. Akron – MAC
4. Louisiana Tech – WAC
5. Bucknell – Patriot
6. Stephen F. Austin – Southland
7. Valparaiso – Horizon
8. Davidson – Southern

How yesterday went:
Belmont – Beat Tennessee State 83-73 in OVC Tournament Semifinals
Next up: Murray State 21-9 (10-6) on Saturday

Harvard – Beat Columbia 56-51 in Ivy League regular season
Next up: Cornell 13-17 (5-8) on Saturday

Princeton – Lost at Yale 71-66 in Ivy League regular season
Next up: @ Brown 12-15 (6-7) on Saturday

Akron – Lost to Kent State 68-64 in MAC regular season
Next up: TBD in MAC Tournament Semifinals on Friday 3/15

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
All times CT

Root against… Davidson vs. Georgia Southern 14-18 (7-11) – 11 AM – Southern Conference Tournament Quarterfinals in Asheville, North Carolina – ESPN3
Root against… Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-20 (3-12) – 3 PM – MAC regular season
Root against… Bucknell vs. Army 26-14 (8-6) – 3:30 PM – Patriot League Tournament Semifinals at Army – CBS Sports Network
Root against… Harvard vs. Cornell 13-17 (5-8) – 4:30 PM – Ivy League regular season – NBCSN
Root against… Princeton @ Brown 12-15 (6-7) – 5 PM – Ivy League regular season
Root against… Detroit vs. Wright State 20-11 (10-6) – 5 PM – Horizon League Tournament Semifinal at Valparaiso – ESPNU tape delay at 9:30 PM
Root against… Stony Brook vs. Binghamton 3-26 (1-15) – 5 PM – America East Tournament Quarterfinals in Albany, New York – ESPN3
Root against… Belmont vs. Murray State 21-9 (10-6) – 6 PM – OVC Tournament Final in Nashville, Tennessee – ESPN2
Root against… Louisiana Tech 26-4 (16-1) @ Denver (ROOT FOR!) 20-8 (15-2) – 6 PM – WAC regular season
Root against… Stephen F. Austin vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi 6-22 (5-12) – 6 PM – Southland regular season
Root against… Middle Tennessee State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 13-19 (8-12) – 6:30 PM – Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals in Hot Springs, Arkansas – ESPN3
Root against… Valparaiso vs. Green Bay 24-7 (13-3) – 7:30 PM – Horizon League Tournament Semifinal at Valparaiso – ESPNU 
Root against… Weber State vs. Eastern Washington 10-20 (7-12) – Big Sky regular season
Root against… Montana vs. Northern Arizona 11-19 (8-11) – Big Sky regular season
Root against… Loyola (Maryland) vs. Manhattan 12-17 (9-9) – 8:30 PM – Metro Atlantic Tournament Quarterfinals in Springfield, Massachusetts – ESPN3
Root against… South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky 17-15 (10-10) – 8:30 PM – Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals in Hot Springs, Arkansas

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals on Friday and Saturday. The final on Tuesday will be at the highest seed left’s home court. Valparaiso would probably be ahead of South Dakota State as might Detroit (#2 seed). Detroit plays #3 Wright State on Saturday and Valparaiso will play #4 Green Bay. Those are both semifinal matchups and upsets would be great.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here. They are in the semifinals hosting Army on Saturday. Lehigh as the #3 seed knocked off Duke last year and if they could win the tournament could have star C.J. McCollum back for the NCAA tournament. Join me in rooting for the Mountain Hawks!

Ohio Valley – Wednesday, March 6th – Saturday March 9th in Nashville, Tennessee – Belmont might get in regardless of if they win this tournament, but Murray State beat South Dakota State and getting them in to the field might help the Jackrabbits resume as well. They play in the final today vs.

Metro Atlantic – Friday, March 8th – Monday March 11th in Springfield, Massachusetts – Loyola (Maryland) might be the #3 seed but they are the only team in the conference with more than 18 wins. Best they lose… they’ll start play in the quarterfinals on Saturday against Manhattan 12-17 (9-9).

Southern – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Asheville, North Carolina – Davidson at 23-7, 17-1 in conference, is the top threat to finish ahead of South Dakota State. Take your pick of underdogs here, the rest would probably be behind South Dakota State. First game for Davidson is Saturday in the quarterfinals against Georgia Southern.

Sun Belt – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Hot Springs, Arkansas – In this one Summit fans maybe want to see Middle Tennessee State knocked off (although with as far ahead of South Dakota State as they probably are… not really that bad if they win. Might be in regardless…) and South Alabama losing as well would probably be good too. Middle Tennessee State starts with Louisiana-Lafayette on Saturday while South Alabama takes on Western Kentucky.

Ivy – Friday, March 8th – Tuesday, March 12th – This isn’t actually a tournament; the top team from the regular season goes. Princeton and Harvard  are tied atop the standings right now. I’ve decided that it’s preferable to these teams lose an extra game if possible since both are probably narrowly behind South Dakota State. Princeton has an extra game left on Tueday at Pennsylvania 8-20 (5-6). In the meantime they play at Brown on Saturday. Harvard hosts Cornell on Saturday. If the two tie there would be a winner-take-all game at the Palestra.

America East – Saturday, March 9th – Saturday March 16th in Albany, New York and campus site – This tournament has the quarterfinals and semifinals in Albany before having the title game on the home court of the highest seed. Only Stony Brook is a threat to South Dakota State. They’ll start play with a quarterfinal game against Binghamton 3-26 (1-15) on Saturday.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron and Ohio both probably need to win the tournament to get in now. Both could be ahead of South Dakota State so probably rooting against both of them. Ohio and Akron are the top two teams in the league and have byes until the semifinals on March 15th. Ohio plays a home game against Miami (Ohio) 8-20 (3-12) on Saturday. Obviously a loss would hurt their potential seed.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – Louisiana Tech would probably be ahead of South Dakota State if they get in. They would have a shot at getting in regardless of results here, but might need to get a few more wins. Denver is also a darkhorse that could finish ahead of South Dakota State. They probably need to win this tournament to get in but as a member of the Summit next year I will be rooting for them to do just that, even if it means being seeded ahead of South Dakota State. Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th. There is one last regulars season game though, and Louisiana Tech is at Denver on Saturday. Denver could take a share of the regular season title and perhaps force Louisiana Tech to win the conference tournament to get in.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 25-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-12 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Still a regular season game remaining with Stephen F. Austin hosting Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 6-22 (5-12) on Saturday.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at the site of the top seed. It’s not yet sure who that is. The top teams (Montana at 22-6 and Weber State at 23-5) could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. The #2 seed (whoever it is) will have to play in the quarterfinals on Thursday while the #1 seed can wait until Friday to tip off. Root for Montana to lose at home to Northern Arizona 11-19 (8-11) on Saturday to make them a less attractive seed. Weber State hosts Eastern Washington 10-20 (7-12) on Saturday and the same applies to them.

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/9

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:25 am

NINE updates for today’s projections!! Despite all that South Dakota State’s seeding has not changed in any of them, just the opponents. South Dakota State looks like a 14 still today and might need some help to jump into that 13 range. Hopefully they get some of it today.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Miami – 3
Arizona – 1
Michigan State – 1
Louisville – 1

  2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1              
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A              
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A              

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Michigan State Lexington South 3/8/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin West 3/8/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin South 3/9/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed     3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 15 Louisville Lexington Midwest 3/8/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed     3/8/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed     3/8/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed     3/9/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 14 Arizona Salt Lake City West 3/9/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin Midwest 3/8/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/8 NIT – South Dakota State a #7 seed if they don’t make the NCAA tournament.
Bracket Project – 3/4 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/9 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. Northwestern State. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

March 8, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/8

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:30 am

Not a lot of updates today (3) and no seeding changes. I will note that Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports has South Dakota State as a #14 seed, 55th overall. Right behind… Stephen F. Austin, Bucknell, Louisiana Tech, and Akron. If you weren’t convinced why it matters who you root against, perhaps you are now. It would seem that if some games go the right way down the stretch South Dakota State could become the top team in the field who needed an auto bid. They aren’t there yet, but it’s possible.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Miami – 3
Arizona – 2
Florida – 1

2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose West 3/4/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Miami Austin West 3/7/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose South 3/1/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed 3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 15 Miami Lexington South 3/4/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/4/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/6/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/7/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 14 Miami Lexington Midwest 3/8/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/5/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/4 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/5 NIT – South Dakota State a #7 seed if they don’t make the NCAA tournament.
Bracket Project – 3/4 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/1 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. California Irvine and Oakland as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. George Mason.

Who to Root Against in Other Conference Tournaments–3/8/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 10:00 am

South Dakota and Summit fans a like should be thrilled to see Louisiana Tech lost to New Mexico State last night. Their first conference loss hurts their resume and gives Denver a chance to tie them for the WAC regular season title when they matchup on Saturday in Denver. To have one of the WAC Co-Champions in the Summit next year would be nice and it would further hurt Louisiana Tech’s resume and (shaky) at-large chances.

The other three games didn’t provide any help, though the opponents were fairly weak and not much was expected. The attention moves from the West last night to the East tonight as Ivy League and Ohio Valley action today is relevant. Belmont takes on Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley semifinals. The Tennessee State Tigers could be an upset pick here as they beat Belmont in the last meeting, 80-69, on Valentine’s Day. Belmont won the first meeting 78-66 back in mid January.

In Ivy League action Princeton goes to Yale while Harvard hosts Columbia. If Harvard losses to go to 9-4 and Princeton wins to get to 10-2 we could see the title decided on Saturday. Harvard lost their previous meeting at Columbia 78-63 while Princeton did lose at Yale 65-69. Both could be interesting tonight.

How yesterday went:
Louisiana Tech – Lost to New Mexico State 78-60 in WAC regular season
Next up: @ Denver 20-8 (15-2) on Saturday

Denver (rooting for) – Beat UTA 84-55 in WAC regular season
Next up: vs. Louisiana Tech 26-4 (16-1) on Saturday

Stephen F. Austin – Beat Sam Houston State 57-42 in Southland regular season
Next up: vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi 6-22 (5-12) on Saturday

Montana – Beat Sacramento State 63-52 in Big Sky regular season
Next up: vs. Northern Arizona 11-19 (8-11) on Saturday

Weber State – Beat Portland State 80-52 in Big Sky regular season
Next up: vs. Eastern Washington 10-20 (7-12) on Saturday

Teams to root against tonight– 3/8:
Root against… Belmont vs. Tennessee State 18-13 (11-5) – 6 PM CT – OVC Tournament Semifinals in Nashville, Tennessee – ESPNU
Root against… Harvard vs. Columbia 12-14 (4-8) – 6 PM CT – Ivy League regular season
Root for… Princeton @ Yale 12-17 (6-6) – 6 PM CT – Ivy League regular season

Summaries for each league:
Horizon – Tuesday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 12th at campus sites/Valparaiso – As the #1 seed, Valparaiso is hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals on Friday and Saturday. The final on Tuesday will be at the highest seed left’s home court. Valparaiso would probably be ahead of South Dakota State as might Detroit (#2 seed). If any of the 3-6 seeds make a run that would be great. Both Detroit and Valparaiso will open play on Saturday in the semifinals vs. second round winners.

Patriot – Wednesday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 13th at campus sites – Bucknell is the team to root against here. They are in the semifinals already hosting Army on Saturday. Lehigh as the #3 seed knocked off Duke last year and if they could win the tournament could have star C.J. McCollum back for the NCAA tournament. Join me in rooting for the Mountain Hawks!

Ohio Valley – Wednesday, March 6th – Saturday March 9th in Nashville, Tennessee – Belmont might get in regardless of if they win this tournament, but Murray State beat South Dakota State and getting them in to the field might help the Jackrabbits resume as well. Belmont starts play on Friday in the semifinals vs. Tennessee State 18-13 (11-5).

Metro Atlantic – Friday, March 8th – Monday March 11th in Springfield, Massachusetts – Loyola (Maryland) might be the #3 seed but they are the only team in the conference with more than 18 wins. Best they lose… they’ll start play in the quarterfinals on Saturday against Manhattan 12-17 (9-9).

Southern – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Asheville, North Carolina – Davidson at 23-7, 17-1 in conference, is the top threat to finish ahead of South Dakota State. Take your pick of underdogs here, the rest would probably be behind South Dakota State. First game for Davidson is Saturday in the quarterfinals.

Sun Belt – Friday, March 8th – Monday, March 11th in Hot Springs, Arkansas – In this one Summit fans definitely want to see Middle Tennessee State knocked off and South Alabama losing as well would probably be good too. Neither will play until Saturday when they’ll take on first round winners.

Ivy – Friday, March 8th – Tuesday, March 12th – This isn’t actually a tournament; the top team from the regular season goes. Princeton is probably preferred to Harvard at this point. The Tigers are behind a game but will have a chance to make that up on the final day when they play at Pennsylvania 8-20 (5-6). In the meantime they play at Yale 12-17 (6-6) on Friday and at Brown 12-14 (6-6) on Saturday. Harvard hosts Columbia 12-14 (4-8) on Friday and Cornell 13-16 (5-7) on Saturday. They need to hope Princeton loses since they already have one more loss. If the two tie there would be a winner-take-all game at the Palestra.

America East – Saturday, March 9th – Saturday March 16th in Albany, New York and campus site – This tournament has the quarterfinals and semifinals in Albany before having the title game on the home court of the highest seed. Only Stony Brook is a threat to South Dakota State. They’ll start play with a quarterfinal game against Binghamton 3-26 (1-15) on Saturday.

MAC – Monday, March 11th – Saturday, March 16th in Cleveland, Ohio – Akron did have that win over North Dakota State so them winning would make the Summit look better, but they might not be in if they don’t win the tournament and would definitely be seeded over South Dakota State if they are. Ohio might be as well. So probably rooting against both of those two. Ohio and Akron are the top two teams in the league and have byes until the semifinals on March 15th. Akron does have a home game against Kent State 18-12 (8-7) on Saturday while Ohio plays a home game against Miami (Ohio) 8-20 (3-12) on Saturday as well. Obviously losses in either of those games would hurt their potential seeds.

WAC – Tuesday, March 12th – Saturday, March 16th in Las Vegas, Nevada – Louisiana Tech would be ahead of South Dakota State if they get in. They would have a shot at getting in regardless of results here, but might need to get a few more wins. Denver is also a darkhorse that could finish ahead of South Dakota State. They probably need to win this tournament to get in but as a member of the Summit next year I will be rooting for them to do just that, even if it means being seeded ahead of South Dakota State. Both Louisiana Tech and Denver will play their first games on Thursday the 14th. There is one last regulars season game though, and Louisiana Tech is at Denver on Saturday. Denver could take a share of the regular season title and perhaps force Louisiana Tech to win the conference tournament to get in.

Southland – Wednesday, March 13th – Saturday, March 16th in Katy, Texas – Stephen F. Austin at 25-3 on the year would be a nice one to see fall. Oral Roberts at 18-12 and being a former Summit member would be a nice one to see win it. Still a regular season game remaining with Stephen F. Austin hosting  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 6-22 (5-12) on Saturday.

Big Sky – Thursday, March 14th – Saturday, March 16th at campus site – This tournament will be held at the site of the top seed. It’s not yet sure who that is. The top teams (Montana at 22-6 and Weber State at 23-5) could be ahead of South Dakota State. North Dakota at #3 played a lot of Summit teams and would be clearly a #16 seed. So go UND. The #2 seed (whoever it is) will have to play in the quarterfinals on Thursday while the #1 seed can wait until Friday to tip off. Root for Montana to lose at home to Northern Arizona 11-19 (8-11) on Saturday to make them a less attractive seed. Weber State hosts Eastern Washington 10-20 (7-12) on Saturday and the same applies to them.

March 7, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/7

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:00 am

As we enter the final weeks I figure it’s okay to start looking at this daily. I’m also going to start posting an average seed to keep track of how they are doing. Despite several updates to the projections for today there weren’t any changes in seedings. I also added where people put South Dakota State on the “S-Curve” (list of all teams in order) if they only post that instead of a bracket. I think there’s real potential for South Dakota State to sneak back up to a 13 seed if they get a little help.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Arizona – 3
Miami – 2
Florida – 1

2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose West 3/4/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose West 3/6/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Arizona San Jose South 3/1/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed 3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 15 Miami Lexington South 3/4/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/4/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/6/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 14 1st #14 seed 3/6/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 14 Miami Lexington Midwest 3/7/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/5/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.
Bracket Predictions – 3/4 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/5 NIT – South Dakota State a #7 seed if they don’t make the NCAA tournament.
Bracket Project – 3/5 NIT – North Dakota State a 7 seed vs. Iowa.
Beer’s Bracket – 3/1 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. California Irvine and Oakland as a #3 seed in the CIT vs. George Mason.

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