Maverick Maniac's Musings

March 13, 2013

2013 Summit League Postseason Projections–3/13

Filed under: Men's Basketball,The Summit League — Jon Green @ 11:00 am

Registered five more updates overnight, though none of them impacted South Dakota State’s seed (still #13 or #14, slightly more likely as a #14). The one change impacting South Dakota State was a matchup picked of them vs. Marquette in Kansas City with Wisconsin/Temple the other part of that pod. They would love that obviously.

The Summit’s participant has been a #13 or #14 seed for each of the last six years after being a #15 or #16 seed for a four year stretch from 2003-2006. No Summit League team has pulled an upset (Oakland won an opening round game in 2005) since Bryce Drew and Valparaiso did it it 15 years ago in 1998. The last time the Summit League had a #12 seed was Valparaiso one year earlier in 1998 and the last time a Summit team (and the only time) was Missouri State who was a #9 seed back in 1990.

Considering when Bryce Drew hit his shot a grand total of TWO current Summit League members were part of the league, and one of those is departing Kansas City, it’s about time the Summit makes some new memories on the grand stage. With Denver and their lovely RPI arriving next season it’s time to make some noise nationally and raise the level of awareness of this league. Hopefully next year the winner is in a real conversation for a #12 seed instead of scrapping for a #13.

Oh and don’t get me started on where South Dakota State might have been had they not had that awful two game slide at Cal State Bakersfield and Murray State… might they actually be in the conversation for a #12 at 27-7 with an RPI that I calculate would be at #54 (as opposed to #63)? Perhaps not since they had only one top 50 win out of three tries (New Mexico) but a 4-4 record against the top 100 when you only had one home game and one quasi-home game is nothing to sneer at. Denver is in the conversation for a #12 seed and they only had one top 50 win (at home over #49 Louisiana Tech…) despite five tries including three at home. They also went 3-8 against the RPI top 100 with a full four of those games at home. It’s no slam dunk that they have a better resume, though the strength of schedule certainly helps… still they had just as many top 50 wins and one less top 100 win.

They need a reason to leave you our (or lower) though and what Denver does have is ZERO losses to a team outside the top 100 while South Dakota State had five, including a sub 300 loss. This is where the Summit’s lack of depth does hurt. We all know Oakland can play and in the Summit league dropping a game at Oakland is not a bad loss. But when it comes time to compare resumes and a loss at Oakland is a loss at a team ranked #150 it’s something the committee will count against you.

Matchups currently projected (out of 6 brackets):
Michigan – 3
Florida – 2
Marquette – 1
Saint Louis – 1

2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
South Dakota State 14 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7
North Dakota State 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Illinois 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

I’ve found the sites I’m using for the projections from http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm It’s a fantastic site linking you to tons of information about various projections out there.

I decided to use seven of their best brackets from last year along with three very prominent brackets. Here’s our panelists:
1. – Lobofan2003’s Bracketology
2. – D1scourse/USA Today’s – Patrick Stevens
3. – Beer’s Bracket
4. – Busting the Bracket
5. – Bracketville
6. – The Bracket Project
7. – Brad-ketology
8. – Yahoo Sports – Brad Evans
9. – CBS Sports – Jerry Palm
10.– ESPN Bracketology – Joe Lunardi

Now yes some of the names may scare you but these guys have been doing brackets for at least three years and have scored the best, all of them better than Joe Lunardi who is the expert of the field.

Here’s the projections they have. Green indicates an improvement in seed. Red shows a falling seed.

Predictor Team In Seed Opponent/Rank Location Regional Date of Prediction
Lobofan2003 South Dakota State 14 Florida Dayton South 3/11/13
Patrick Stevens South Dakota State 14 Marquette Kansas City West 3/13/13
Beer’s Bracket South Dakota State 14 Florida Austin East 3/10/13
Busting the Bracket South Dakota State 14 2nd #14 seed 3/6/13
Bracketville South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/13/13
The Bracket Project South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills East 3/11/13
Brad-ketology South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed 3/11/13
Brad Evans South Dakota State 13 4th #13 seed 3/13/13
Jerry Palm South Dakota State 13 Saint Louis San Jose West 3/13/13
Joe Lunardi South Dakota State 14 Michigan Auburn Hills West 3/12/13

Here’s some other predictions that include NIT (and occasionally CBI/CIT) … just for a taste of what people think.

Oakland has already mentioned they were invited to a postseason event, haven’t decided yet. Western Illinois is hoping for an invite. North Dakota State and South Dakota State would surely get bids, but I think the NIT is out of the question unless NDSU wins, in which case SDSU is in the NIT automatically.

Bracket Predictions – 3/8 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Brad-Ketology – 3/11 NIT – South Dakota State 1st on list of “Other Postseason Contenders”
Bracket Project – 3/11 NIT – No Summit League Teams
Beer’s Bracket – 3/10 CBI – Has North Dakota State a #1 seed vs. UCF. He also has Western Illinois as a #2 seed in the CIT vs. Arkansas State.

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