Maverick Maniac's Musings

March 2, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #28 Preview – Kansas City

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 11:00 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - Kansas City - 3-2-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($8 – Me on the call!)
Live Audio (Free – Kansas City Feed – T.J. Jackson) 

It’s a four game losing streak for the Mavericks now. The roughest stretch of the year has led to this… one last game to get one last win. The Mavericks will be determined to pick it up today. If Omaha does lose and fall to 6-10 they’d lose the tiebreaker to Kansas City since the Roos have a victory over South Dakota. Since Omaha already loses tiebreakers to Western Illinois and North Dakota State (who they are tied with at 6-9) the Mavericks would be in 8th place. Not where they want to finish. So this is… a must win!

Kansas City
The Roos have had a real up and down years. The big problem for them has been the injury bug which limited first-team All-Summit selection Kim Nezianya to just seven games in November before her season ended. Without her much of the weight has been placed on Eilise O’Connor, the only player averaging more than 5.7 points. O’Connor has tried to do it all, and is averaging 17.5 points per game, but shoots just 35% and turns it over nearly four times per game.

This is definitely a team that has a lot of role players but perhaps not enough leaders. Four players average 3.5 to 5 rebounds. Four players average 4.4 to 5.7 points. The problem is that they don’t have someone to rely on to go grab eight rebounds a game or anyone else to help O’Connnor in scoring.

In the matchup in December Omaha got a huge 21 points from Ericka House who went 7-15 from three. Omaha relied on those outside shots to pull away in the second half as the Mavericks shot just 31% from twos for the game. They went 11-27 from three and had double-doubles from both Frauendorfer (11 points and 13 rebounds) and Carolyn Blair-Mobley (14 points and 12 rebounds). Jamie Nash even had a great game with seven points, five rebounds, six assists, five steals, and just two turnovers. If Omaha can get those kind of performances I think they’ll be in good shape.

Kansas City can moved up to the #6 seed, but it requires a very particular scenario… Kansas City needs to beat Omaha to get to 6-10. Then they need to be tied with Western Illinois (requiring them to lose at home to Oakland). Finally they need North Dakota State to not be involved in the tiebreaker since Kansas City comes out last in a 3-team tiebreaker. So they need North Dakota State to shock South Dakota State in Fargo. It’s an unlikely scenario so most likely Kansas City will be playing IUPUI next Saturday in Sioux Falls.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
202 – Saint Louis (56-53)
205 – South Dakota (60-56)
242 – @ Western Illinois (51-50)
257 – Fort Wayne (77-59)
261 – North Dakota State (62-60)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
295 – Oakland (46-55)
266 – (Neutral) Boise State (64-71)
261 – @ North Dakota State (48-59)
257 – @ Fort Wayne (42-49)
249 – @ New Mexico State (50-75)

Some decent wins as Omaha probably doesn’t have as good of a best win. Certainly no pushover and with a win at Omaha they’d be at 6-10. 6-10 Isn’t great but it’s also just two results flipped from a .500 season.

Omaha vs. Kansas City – Summit League Only Stats

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 37.0% 29.7% 75.3% 0.830 0.857 22.2 0.721 51.1% 37.6% 31.4% 23.0 51.0% 33.1% 68.1% 4.0
UMKC 39.5% 32.5% 79.0% 0.796 0.906 26.7 0.510 48.5% 37.7% 28.6% 19.0 44.2% 22.8% 66.0% 3.4
Favors.. UMKC UMKC UMKC Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha UMKC Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

While Omaha isn’t among the league leaders in many categories they are better than Kansas City in most. The Roos are better in the shooting categories, highlighted by shooting 79% from the FT line in conference, and defensive 3FG%, but that is it!

Expected Starters
Kansas City
Guard – Eilise O’Connor – 5-9 – Junior – Averaging 17.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.5 steals.
Guard – Emile Blakesley – 5-8 – Senior – Averaging 3.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.
Guard – Lexis Hardiek – 5-7 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.4 points and 1.0 rebound.
Forward – Taylor Leathers – 6-0 – Freshman – Averaging 5.6 points and 3.5 rebounds.
Forward – Hailey Houser – 6-3 – Junior – Averaging 5.7 points and 4.1 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 9.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 3.2 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.1 points and 2.6 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.7 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Race to 50? – The Mavericks have hit 50 in four of their last seven games, and Kansas City has hit it in just three of their last seven games. It’s quite possible that the first team to 50 will win this game. Omaha scored 39 in their last game while Kansas City scored just 33. I hope we aren’t watching a battle for 40 today.

2.) Rebounding Advantage – This would seem to be something Omaha could really exploit. The Mavericks grab 33.1% of their own misses, not spectacular but a solid number. Kansas City allows opponents to grab 34% of their misses. That would seem to be a good situation for Omaha and could make up for shooting woes that Omaha has been showing. On the other end Omaha isn’t a great defensive rebounding team grabbing only 68.1% of the available defensive rebounds but Kansas City is a very bad offensive rebounding team as their opponents usually get 77.2% of the available rebounds. Remember that the defensive rebounding problem really cost Omaha on Thursday against South Dakota. If they can lock that down today they could be well on their way to a win.

3.) Senior Day – It’s the final game for Carly Cator, Carolyn Blair-Mobley, Jamie Nash, and Paige Frauendorfer. The emotions will be running high but I know that first and foremost they want to end their career with ONE.LAST.WIN. The effort today should be fantastic and since Kansas City is headed to Sioux Falls they do have slightly less to play for.

Prediction
It has to end with a win today. It just has to. I know Omaha will fight for it, not sure it’ll happen, but I can’t pick against them in this one when I know they can win. 51-45.

Massey – Omaha wins 57-49
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 68-52

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