Maverick Maniac's Musings

February 23, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #26 Preview – North Dakota State

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 6:20 pm

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - North Dakota State - 2-23-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($10)
Live Audio (Free – NDSU feed)

While the last game was one of those you don’t expect to win, this one is a game you can come out and expect to have a good chance to win. Omaha has their last chance to pick up another road win this year and needs this win to keep hopes alive of a winning conference season.

North Dakota State
These two teams met at the Sapp Fieldhouse last month and Omaha rode a season high 25 from Paige Frauendorfer and a great team rebounding night to a 61-52 win. Jamie Nash had her nearly triple-double with 11 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds.

North Dakota State plays a fairly slow pace, a little faster than Omaha, and are stronger on offensive than defense. They like to shoot the three, but they aren’t particularly good at it. Their main scorers are Katie Birkel and Danielle DeGagne who both had double figures against Omaha the first time.

The Bison have been hurt by injuries and the retirement of Hannah Linz to a recurrence of Hodgkin’s Lymphoma has been a problem for them. She was the only main three point shooter over 30%.

North Dakota State has lost six of their last eight games, the only wins at South Dakota (What?) and at home to Oakland. This is a must win for the Mavericks.

One special factor for Omaha could be Taijhe Kelly. When she is efficient inside she is a difference maker unlike any Omaha has. In the first matchup with North Dakota State she had six rebounds and four blocks but went 0-4 from the field in 23 minutes. Staying out of foul trouble is a key for her but she has blocked five or more in four straight games and it would seem that could be doable again tonight.

If Omaha can get some other players that Frauendorfer going tonight I think the Mavericks take this one. If most of the team struggles to hit shots again and Frauendorfer is shooting 18 times to try and keep things going it could get iffy.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
97 – Harvard (81-72)
134 – IUPUI (71-68)
224 – Milwaukee (60-48)
232 – @ South Dakota (57-50)
248 – (Neutral) Prairie View A&M (61-56)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
285 – @ Kansas City (60-62)
280 – @ Boise State (61-80)
277 – Drake (50-62)
261 – Fort Wayne (58-70)
261 – @ Fort Wayne (58-65)

They have had some good wins at home. Definitely can sneak up on teams.

Omaha vs. North Dakota State – Summit League Only Stats

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 37.6% 32.4% 75.3% 0.843 0.854 23.1 0.695 51.3% 37.9% 30.8% 23.0 52.3% 33.4% 70.0% 3.7
NDSU 39.2% 26.1% 74.0% 0.883 0.956 17.3 1.025 52.7% 43.9% 36.1% 20.0 49.6% 28.4% 70.4% 2.9
Favors.. NDSU Omaha Omaha NDSU Omaha NDSU NDSU NDSU Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha NDSU Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

Generally North Dakota State is better than Omaha on offense. The only place that isn’t true is in 3-point shooting where the Bison are particularly poor and FT%. Omaha is also a stronger offensive rebounding team. Omaha is stronger on the defensive side with the only exception being the defensive rebounding side where North Dakota State has been narrowly better.

Expected Starters
North Dakota State
Guard – Dani DeGagne – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 13.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.1 steals.
Guard – Katie Birkel – 5-8 – Senior – Averaging 14.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.7 steals.
Guard – Jamie Van Kirk – 5-9 – Sophomore – Averaging 8.1 points and 3.7 rebounds.
Forward – Liz Keena – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.6 points and 2.4 rebounds.
Forward – Marena Whittle – 5-11 – Freshman – Averaging 6.4 points and 7.2 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 9.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 3.2 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.1 points and 2.8 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 14.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) North Dakota State’s Shooting – The Bison shoot just 25.6% from three for the year and aren’t all that much better at 41.3% inside the arc. North Dakota State still takes 28% of their shots from three. Compare that to Omaha who takes just 26% of their shots from deep and shoots 33%. If Omaha can force North Dakota State into difficult threes that might really hurt their ability to stay in the game. In the first matchup North Dakota State took 19 threes (30% of their shots) and hit 26% of them.

2.) Someone Help Paige… – Paige Frauendorfer has scored 44 points in the last two games, that’s a full 44% of Omaha’s points. Someone else has got to step up and help her out as Omaha is going to find defense focusing on her. She’s only taken 33% of Omaha’s shots over the last two games so it’s not like other people aren’t getting the looks… they just have to hit them.

3.) Turnovers – Omaha has been doing a good job at this the last couple weeks but it’s worth noting that in the last matchup Omaha had 23 turnovers to 13 for the Bison. That was one of the reasons the game was within nine despite Omaha dominating other areas.

Prediction
I’ll take Omaha to sweep the season series in a tight game, 58-51.

Massey – Omaha wins 62-57
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 61-60

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