Maverick Maniac's Musings

February 21, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #25 Preview – South Dakota State

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 6:22 pm

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - South Dakota State - 2-21-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($5)
Live Audio ($5 and SDSU feed… same purchase as the video)

It feels like a lifetime since Omaha last played. The last game was a loss to IUPUI in the final seconds on February 9th. Now twelve days later Omaha is facing a really tough matchup as they play South Dakota State in Brookings tonight.

South Dakota State
It’s been tough for any Summit League foe to top the Jackrabbits this year. Against 7 of the other 8 teams they own a 12-0 record. The only teams to beat them since November 28th are IUPUI twice and a loss by 10 at #7 Penn State. This will be the toughest game of the year for Omaha.

South Dakota State features a very balanced lineup headline by two main scorers. Megan Waytashek averages 14.4 points and Ashley Eide averages 13.7 points but no other player averages more than 8.4 points. Nine players have played in at least 26 of their 27 games while averaging atleast 11 minutes. No one averages more than 29 minutes.

By contrast of course Omaha features just a few main players and in their last win had only five players make up 89% of their minutes and all of their points.

South Dakota State is a good shooting team who leads the Summit in both 2FG% and 3FG%. Ashley Eide shoots 37% from three while Megan Waytashek shoots 43% from deep.They have a couple more shooters in the low 30% range, but those two are the main threats.

If there’s any weak spot for the Jackrabbits it might be that they aren’t great from the FT line and do turn it over a decent amount. Both of those were factors last week as they lost at IUPUI. South Dakota State went 24-37 from the FT line and had 20 turnovers. They also went 1-17 from three and still only lost by three.

In the first matchup Omaha played with the Jackrabbits for most of the game but had one bad stretch in the first half that really cost them. Omaha was nearly perfect from the FT line, 21-22, which allowed them to stay in the game despite shooting 37% compared to South Dakota State’s 52%. No Jackrabbit had more than 11 points but six players scored between 9 and 11. South Dakota State went 8-20 from there including 3-5 shooting from Rachel Walters who is a 20% shooter from deep if you remove her two really good games of the year.

I don’t think Omaha will win, but an argument could be made that Omaha can be in this game. They definitely didn’t look overwhelmed by South Dakota State in the first matchup and if they can play a full game tonight and the Jackrabbits aren’t sharp, who knows.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
21 – Nebraska (60-55)
49 – @ Georgetown (64-58)
50 – Middle Tennessee State (63-56)
121 – @ Northern Iowa (61-49)
160 – (Neutral) Washington State – 130

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
117 – IUPUI (56-57)
117 – @ IUPUI (67-70)
64 – Marquette (74-77)
57 – @ Central Michigan (62-88)
30 – Creighton (54-63)

Yep… that’s a good resume for a Summit League school.

Omaha vs. South Dakota State – Summit League Only Stats

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 37.9% 33.3% 74.7% 0.846 0.839 23.6 0.697 52.4% 37.2% 29.5% 22.0 52.8% 33.6% 70.5% 3.6
SDSU 44.0% 35.3% 69.0% 0.988 0.803 21.8 1.018 63.0% 37.9% 29.2% 25.0 55.3% 37.2% 74.0% 3.4
Favors.. SDSU SDSU Omaha SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU Omaha SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

South Dakota State is prettty good. They are not outside the top six in any category I track. Omaha betters them in just three categories: free throw percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and blocks per game.

Expected Starters
South Dakota State
Guard – Gabby Boever – 5-8 – Sophomore – Averaging 6.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.4 steals.
Guard – Ashley Eide – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 13.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Forward – Leah Dietel – 6-1 – Senior – Averaging 5.6 points and 5.6 rebounds.
Forward – Hannah Strop – 6-0 – Junior – Averaging 3.5 points and 4.2 rebounds.
Forward – Megan Waytashek – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 14.4 points and 4.2 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 10.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 3.1 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.2 points and 2.9 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 14.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 5.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Depth – Omaha’s players will be rested from this nice long break. Perhaps it’ll give them a bit more of a spark as they’ll be playing quite a few more minutes than South Dakota State’s starters.

2.) Turnovers – Omaha struggled to the tune of 21 turnovers in the first matchup with South Dakota State including eight by Jamie Nash. Omaha has to limit those tonight. They can be especially costly on the road as it can play a major part in a game steamrolling out of control. South Dakota State did commit 21 turnovers against Omaha as the Mavericks had 11 steals. That kind of defensive intensity will be important tonight.

3.) Complete Game – Omaha played a strong 2nd half in the first meeting but were down 15 at the break after a bad run late in the first half. Omaha can’t let that happen tonight. Just need to stay in this one until late and then make a play for the game.

Prediction
Can’t pick against South Dakota State but I don’t think it’ll be too ugly. I’ll take the Jackrabbits 64-56.

Massey – South Dakota State wins 66-54
RealTimeRPI – South Dakota State wins 71-58

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