Maverick Maniac's Musings

February 2, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #22 Preview – Oakland

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 11:57 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - Oakland - 2-2-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($6? Definitely behind a pay wall)
Live Audio (1180 AM – Robert Ford)

Omaha hit one of their low points this season in a loss at Fort Wayne on Thursday. The Mavericks started 3-1 in the Summit League and with a sweep this weekend would have been much harder to catch for 4th place. Instead they were knocked off by a Fort Wayne team on Thursday night and now find themselves tied with the Mastodons and Kansas City at 4-5. Suddenly this game at Oakland looks even more important and more difficult.

Omaha’s just not doing some things well in conference. Namely, offense. The Mavericks have been good enough in most games defensively but their offense hasn’t been able to rise to the occasion a lot of times and they’ve lost games. Oakland was a team they beat pretty easily in Omaha, but don’t look for a blowout today.

Oakland
The first time these teams met the game was close for the first half before Omaha ran away with the game in the 2nd half. It was a strong defensive performance by Omaha but the offense really heated up for twenty minutes to get the 59-41 win. Omaha turned it over 11 times in the first half in that game which is a warning sign for today’s game and Omaha’s handling of the ball.

Since then Oakland has not had much success, losing four of their five games. The one was an impressive nine point win at Kansas City and they could have won at home to North Dakota State and at Fort Wayne, losing both games in the final seconds. This team is not as bad as 2-6 indicates.

This is a young team who boasts two freshman and a sophomore in the starting lineup. Freshman guard Elena Popkey is averaging 11.4 points and 5.2 rebounds and is a big threat from deep where she shoots 43%. Freshman forward Olivia Nash averages 11.3 points and 8.4 rebounds. She can score inside of course but also likes to play outside and has taken 49 threes in 14 games (hitting 33% of them).

None of the Golden Grizzlies are extremely explosive scorers. Nash’s season high was 16 while Popkey has gone for 22 and 20, but hasn’t topped 15 in the last six games. This should be a fairly low scoring game that Omaha can win with a good offensive performance.

Omaha is going to look to their senior leaders and ask them to carry the team, but it’s also up to the role players to do their part. Ericka House has to be a weapon off the bench. Stacia Gebers/Casse Vaughn can’t combine for two points and one rebound (unless Kelly is going to go for 15 rebounds and eight points… then it’s okay). Omaha just needs someone to step up. Too often they need big games out of all three of their stars and if any of them are having a bad night the Mavericks are going to struggle.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
102 – American (70-60)
162 – IUPUI (68-59)
241 – @ Canisius (52-51)
259 – George Mason (62-58)
274 – Western Michigan (73-70)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
321 – @ Manhattan (43-47)
294 – @ Fort Wayne (55-57)
277 – Buffalo (59-61)
267 – North Dakota State (59-60)
250 – @ Omaha (41-59)

Couple of pretty good wins at home and when you notice that Omaha is in their worst five losses you do realize they aren’t all that bad and their record is partially a result of a tough schedule.

Omaha vs. Oakland

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 38.2% 34.1% 72.6% 0.834 0.848 24.3 0.658 51.3% 38.0% 30.3% 15.1 52.8% 32.9% 70.9% 2.7
Oakland 39.3% 26.9% 67.4% 0.822 0.886 22.8 0.943 66.3% 40.5% 34.7% 22.0 48.8% 27.8% 68.8% 3.6
Favors.. Oakland Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Oakland Oakland Oakland Omaha Omaha Oakland Omaha Omaha Omaha Oakland

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category. Conference only statistics.

Neither team has been great on offense in the Summit League. Oakland shooting better and not turning it over as much, Omaha a bit better outside and an on free throws. Defensively Omaha is better though Oakland forces more turnovers and blocks more shots. Omaha is the better rebounding team.

Starters
Oakland
Guard – Elena Popkey – 5-5 – Freshman – Averaging 11.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
Guard – Victoria Lipscomb – 5-7 – Junior – Averaging 7.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.2 steals.
Guard – Peyton Aspey – 5-9 – Sophomore – Averaging 2.4 points and 2.6 rebounds.
Guard/Forward – Elizabeth Hamlet – 5-11 – Junior – Averaging 7.4 points and 2.0 rebounds.
Forward – Olivia Nash – 6-1 – Freshman – Averaging 11.3 points and 8.4 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 3.4 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.2 points and 3.1 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 14.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.8 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Depth – Is Omaha wearing down at all because of the heavy minutes the players are getting? Who knows but regardless of the heavy minutes Omaha is not a deep team and is in a situation where they desperately need more players to step up. Casse Vaughn has shown the ability to score in great rates but is deep in the dog house right now. Ericka House loves to shoot the three but hasn’t been hitting many lately (12-43 in 2013). Someone needs to help the starters out. The players need to focus on making the most of every opportunity because most of them aren’t getting a lot of chances and aren’t doing much when they do.

2.) The Frauendorfer/Blair-Mobley duo – Combined average in losses – 22.3. Combined average in wins – 27.6. Average margin of defeat (minus the awful Western Illinois game) is 6.8. Omaha needs both to have good games. They are the two main weapons and if one of them is off unless the other plays incredible it’s usually not enough. Paige has scored in single digits five times. Two were non D-1 games (lots of bench play) and the other three Omaha lost. Omaha has only lost one game this year when they both scored in double digits, the South Dakota State game.

3.) Play to their potential – Omaha should be a better team than Oakland. They have senior leadership and they’ve shown that talent in a lot of games this year. Omaha knows they can and should win this game. It’s time to come out and play like it and look like the better team and not looking shaky from the start. Be on the front foot and be aggressive. Take the game to Oakland.

Prediction
Think it’s been a tough couple days for the Mavericks as they get ready for this one. Imagine it’ll be an inspired performance and that Omaha is going to answer some questions. I’ll take Omaha 64-47.

Massey – Omaha wins 58-54
RealTimeRPI – Oakland wins 62-59

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