Maverick Maniac's Musings

February 2, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game #25 Preview – Oakland

Filed under: Men's Basketball,Omaha Mavericks,Previews — Jon Green @ 12:29 pm

Omaha Men's Basketball Preview - Oakland - 2-2-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($8… no audio)
Live Audio (Oakland Feed)

This will have to be brief as the game is at the top of the hour and I still need to get there. Omaha comes in on a three game winning streak and ready to make a major statement by toppling Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies seem to be the 4th best team in the league this year and is only of only four Summit League teams the Mavericks have yet to beat.

Oakland
We can summarize Oakland pretty quickly.

First of all they’ve played a grueling schedule. Lots of road games just like Omaha, but the level of competition was much tougher. The games were not all blowouts. One saw them go to OT at Pittsburgh before losing 72-62. The same Pittsburgh I am currently watching beat #6 Syracuse. They are one of the best teams Omaha will face all season and are coming off a good home win over Western Illinois.

They have some great players. Travis Bader is an all-time great sharpshooter. He’s hitting 40% of his three’s and taking 10.7 a game. Averages 21.6 points and went for 47 last week against IUPUI. Duke Mondy is a brilliant transfer who is averaging 4.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 3.1 steals and 11.8 points. Corey Petros is a 6-10 beast inside averaging 12.7 points and 8.5 rebounds. Drew Valentine is a senior forward averaging 9 points and 6.2 rebounds. This is a team who depends on their best players mostly, all four of the above mentioned guys averaging at least 31 minutes.

Omaha will be challenged. The Mavericks are not as talented as Oakland but can look back to the game in Rochester for some hope. Omaha shot 55% from the field and went 11-22 from three. Neither of these teams are great defensively so Omaha will get opportunities to score. Poor shooting is not an option today, it’s gotta be hot all day to stay i n this. Additionally Omaha needs to be better with the ball (20 turnovers in the first meeting) and not get killed on the boards.  It’s doable, it’s going to be very exciting if Omaha can stay in the game, but it’s going to be tough.

Best Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
98 – Valparaiso (70-68)
133 – Western Illinois (67-60)
210 – @ Eastern Michigan (59-57)
227 – @ Texas Southern (71-69)
273 – Kansas City (81-68)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
240 – @ Louisiana (79-90)
237 – South Dakota (78-97)
133 – @ Western Illinois (63-73)
108 – @ West Virginia (71-76)
97 – @ Ohio (61-78)

Needless to say, Oakland has played a brutal schedule (for this level) as evidenced by these two categories. Couple of really good wins and no real bad losses.

Omaha vs. Oakland – Summit League Only Stats

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 49.8% 38.9% 68.1% 1.027 1.131 20.2 0.909 47.0% 49.2% 41.4% 18.0 45.5% 26.3% 62.6% 3.2
Oakland 46.6% 37.7% 70.2% 1.089 1.065 18.3 1.233 59.3% 52.7% 42.4% 23.0 54.4% 34.9% 75.6% 1.1
Favors.. Omaha Omaha Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland Omaha Omaha Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Better team in bold

Omaha’s stronger shooting and defensively against the shooting. Oakland is better at rebounding and turnovers on both sides.

Starters
Oakland
Point Guard – Ryan Bass – 5-9 – Junior – Dayton, Ohio – Averaging 9.0 points, 2.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
Guard – Travis Bader – 6-5 – Junior – Okemos, Michigan – Averaging 21.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 4.3 3’s (40% 3FG%).
Guard – Duke Mondy – 6-2 – Junior – Grand Rapids, Michigan – Averaging 11.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 3.1 steals.
Forward – Drew Valentine – 6-5 – Senior – Lansing, Michigan – Averaging 9.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.0 steals.
Center – Corey Petros – 6-10 – Sophomore – Macomb, Michigan – Averaging 12.7 points and 8.5 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – CJ Carter – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 9.1 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists.
Guard – Alex Phillips – 6-3 – Junior – Averaging 8.7 points and 2.5 rebounds.
Guard – Justin Simmons – 6-3 – Junior – Averaging 15.8 points and 3.8 rebounds.
Forward – Alex Welhouse – 6-7 – Senior – Averaging 8.0 points and 4.5 rebounds.
Center – John Karhoff – 6-8 – Junior -  Averaging 12.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

Three Things to Watch
1) Travis Bader vs. Justin Simmons – Either one of these guys could score 30 today and I’d bet both score at least 20. Whoever plays defense on Bader needs to stick too him as tight as possible. He’s going to take threes over you yes but try to get a hand in his face so it’s not just shooting practice. Simmons will do his thing, he’s got plenty of ways to score. He had 24 in the first matchup.

2.) John Karhoff vs. Corey Petros – In the first game Karhoff did okay holding Petros to 16 points and eight rebounds but only played 23 minutes picking up four fouls. He can’t afford to get in foul trouble today and getting Petros in some would certainly help. Petros went 7-8 from the field and had four offensive rebounds. Going to be a challenge for Karhoff, hope he can put in a great performance.

3.) Bench/Marcus Tyus – Oakland’s bench is tiny. Even with some foul trouble last time against Omaha they got just 38 minutes and six points off the bench. Against Western Illinois Oakland got 28 minutes and six points off the bench. Omaha could have an advantage here if Marcus Tyus can play like he did on Thursday. That extra scoring and some relief for tired legs could give Omaha an edge late in the game.

Prediction
Omaha is playing so well but Oakland is a really really tall test. With Petros inside being such a challenge for Karhoff and Bader being nearly impossible to guard there are a lot of questions defensively. Remember that in the first matchup Omaha shot 55% from the field, 50% from three (on 22 of them!) and STILL lost by 12.

I think it’ll be closer today, but I’m not expecting an Omaha win. Oakland 89-83.

Massey – Oakland wins 87-80
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 81-80

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