Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 31, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #21 Preview – Fort Wayne

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 11:00 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - Fort Wayne - 1-31-13

Live Stats
Live Video (Free? Seems to be at least…)
Live Audio (1180 AM – Robert Ford)

No one is going to be too upset about Omaha’s 10 point loss to South Dakota State on Saturday and thus the Mavericks should be in good spirits at the head to Fort Wayne for Thursday night’s game. Omaha was a 10 point winner over Fort Wayne in the matchup in Omaha, but the Mastodons led by one in the final minutes before an 11-0 run gave Omaha the win. Fort Wayne has also been good at home, this one won’t be a walk in the park for Omaha.

Fort Wayne
Since these teams last met the Mastodons have lost three of five but one of those three was a two point loss at home to South Dakota State, 66-64. The mastodons seem to be a different team at home where they are 3-2 in conference with the only losses to SDSU and IUPUI (79-74). One of those wins was a 80-49 win over Western Illinois.

Fort Wayne got a 57-55 win over Oakland last Saturday at home and has some talented players that can score. Three Mastodons have scored 20+ points in conference games so far this season, Amanda Hyde the leader amongst the group. Hyde had 20 points on 7-13 shooting against Omaha but was limited a bit by foul trouble which did eventually take her out of the game. Omaha had the advantage in every area of that game and held Fort Wayne to 34% shooting. Omaha was strong on the boards and only committed 11 turnovers while shooting 43%.

My recap of that game is available here. I was impressed by the Mastodons in that one and if they catch Omaha on a bad shooting night they could easily upset the Mavericks. Fort Wayne definitely has a top two scorers in Hyde and Erin Murphy. In Omaha they combined for 34 points (season average of 31) but Omaha did a great job of locking down the other players. Omaha also got eight points out of Casse Vaughn who has been noticeably quiet in the last few games.

The Mavericks should have the advantage inside again as Fort Wayne doesn’t have a starter over 5-10. If the Mavericks can get the ball into Taijhe Kelly and Stacia Gebers a lot they could build a nice advantage in the paint. Fort Wayne does have some taller players off the bench but they get around 76% of their minutes out of the five starters.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
247 – Western Illinois (80-49)
258 – Oakland (57-55)
264 – North Dakota State (65-58)
289 – @ Southern Illinois (78-65)
313 – Coastal Carolina (51-46)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
277 – @ Kansas City (59-77)
250 – @ Ball State (46-53)
249 – @ Omaha (50-60)
217 – Valparaiso (73-82)
204 – SIU-Edwardsville (67-74)

Have been better at home than on the road but still not a hugely impressive resume. Haven’t lost a home game to a team with an RPI as low as Omaha yet.

Omaha vs. Fort Wayne

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 38.1% 32.5% 77.7% 0.838 0.845 24.1 0.656 50.9% 38.4% 31.1% 24.0 52.6% 33.3% 69.9% 2.8
IPFW 40.0% 33.0% 80.0% 0.933 0.981 20.3 0.844 55.1% 44.9% 36.4% 24.0 42.8% 25.6% 62.3% 0.9
Favors.. IPFW IPFW IPFW IPFW Omaha IPFW IPFW IPFW Omaha Omaha Tied Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category. Conference only statistics.

Conference only statistics are decidedly not kind to the Mavericks. That noted, we see Fort Wayne being the stronger offensive team and Omaha the stronger defensive and rebounding team. Strength vs. Strength on Thursday. Fort Wayne is shooting 78.9% on FTs this season, 4th in the country.

Starters
Fort Wayne
Guard – Rachel Mauk – 5-10 – Junior – Averaging 5.3 points and 2.7 rebounds.
Guard – Stefanie Mauk – 5-10 – Junior – Averaging 7.8 points and 6.3 rebounds.
Guard – Haley Seibert – 5-5 – Sophomore – Averaging 8.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.
Guard – Erin Murphy – 5-10 – Junior – Averaging 11.8 points and 2.3 rebounds.
Forward – Amanda Hyde – 5-7 – Junior – Averaging 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.8 steals.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 3.4 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.2 points and 3.1 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 14.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.8 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Size Mismatch – Omaha has two starters at 6-0 or taller. Fort Wayne has none over 5-10. Taijhe Kelly will have a six inch advantage on any starter trying to guard her so expect Fort Wayne to try to deny entry passes to her. If Omaha can find a way to get her going that will help. She played just eight minutes and went 1-3 in the first game.

2.) Perimeter Shooters – All five starters can shoot the three for Fort Wayne with the worst being Rachel Mauk who is 28% from three. This means Omaha will have to do a good job of identifying shooters and getting out to the perimeter. Just as Omaha might see an advantage inside with Kelly, Fort Wayne might see it as an advantage to have her in there so they can stretch Omaha’s defense to the perimeter.

3.) Strength on the Glass – Omaha is a way better rebounding team than Fort Wayne. The Mavericks had a +4 advantage on the boards and if they can improve on that a bit that should help them in what should be a close game.

Prediction
I’ll take the Mavericks to win this one in a close game. 64-60. Omaha really needs to get a couple of road wins this weekend to set themselves up for a strong finish with four of their last six at home.

Massey – Omaha wins 63-57
RealTimeRPI – Fort Wayne wins 61-60

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