Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 26, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #20 Preview – South Dakota State

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 9:56 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview - South Dakota State - 1-26-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($8, but you do get to listen to me… )
Live Audio (South Dakota State Feed and I think it costs $12/month… yuck!)

Thursday night Omaha picked up a solid win over North Dakota State. The Mavericks never looked in much trouble and despite 23 turnovers did plenty right to get the win. That kind of performance might not be enough though today when South Dakota State comes to the Fieldhouse. The Jackrabbits are the best team Omaha will face this year and this could be a chance to get a massive win, perhaps the biggest in school history.

South Dakota State
South Dakota State is the class of the Summit League having won three straight regular season titles and four straight Summit League tournaments. Over the last two seasons they are now 22-3 in league play. They’ve played a very difficult schedule this year and have a few losses to show for it but also some impressive wins. While some teams could come to the Fieldhouse and feel like Omaha’s one of the tougher teams they’ve faced this year, South Dakota State won’t be feeling that way.

South Dakota State lost to IUPUI last Saturday which means Omaha is seeking to give them back-to-back losses. They did have back-to-back losses earlier this year (@ Central Michigan, Marquette) but they haven’t had back-to-back Summit League losses since January 2011 (Fort Wayne and Oakland). The Jackrabbits statistical profile is not as prolific as Omaha’s, but a lot of that is due to the schedule. In conference they are the top offensive and defensive team.

They are a good three point shooting team so Omaha will need to do a better job defending them out there than was necessary vs. North Dakota State. They’re good on defense and rebound well, especially on the defensive end. If there’s anything they struggle with it’s… FTs?

Their leading scorer is preseason All-Summit senior guard Ashley Eide who scores 14.4 per game and grabs four rebounds. Sophomore guard Megan Waytashek adds 13.8 and 4.5 rebounds. Definitely their two primary options. Several other players average between four and eight points.It’s definitely a deep team with no player averaging more than 30 minutes and eight players average at least 12.

Their head coach is Aaron Johnson with over 300 career wins and now the all-time leader in wins at the school after getting 302 against Oakland on January 10th.

While one game does not make a trend, and it will make South Dakota State fired up to play better today, the Jackrabbits were poor from the field last Saturday against IUPUI. They shot just 35% and went 3-23 from three. They were also not great on the defensive glass. Both of those are things you could see Omaha doing to them as well, along with committing 23 turnovers like IUPUI did.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
38 – @ Georgetown (64-58)
44 – Nebraska (60-55)
55 – Middle Tennessee State (63-56)
105 – @ Northern Iowa (61-49)
130 – (Neutral) Washington State – 130

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
135 – IUPUI (56-57)
63 – Marquette (74-77)
52 – @ Central Michigan (62-88)
26 – Creighton (54-63)
17 – (Neutral) Villanova (47-71)

Wow. Three top 100 wins including @ Georgetown!!! They have only one loss against a sub 100 team. Nice resume for a mid-major school.

Omaha vs. South Dakota State

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 42.0% 33.0% 70.3% 0.892 0.795 24.5 0.862 57.0% 35.5% 29.6% 24.0 53.7% 38.1% 68.0% 3.2
SDSU 40.8% 33.2% 70.0% 0.904 0.835 24.3 0.785 62.0% 39.1% 30.9% 24.0 51.9% 33.9% 71.8% 2.8
Favors.. Omaha SDSU Omaha SDSU Omaha SDSU Omaha SDSU Omaha Omaha Tied Omaha Omaha SDSU Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

Pretty even matchup. Both good shooting teams but Omaha’s a bit better from the field, SDSU from deep. Both good offensive teams but SDSU more prolific. Both teams struggle with turnovers though Omaha has a pretty good assist/turnover ratio still. SDSU just has a good assist/basket ratio.

Defensively both teams are strong with Omaha slightly better. On the glass Omaha is a great offensive rebounding team, SDSU is a great defensive rebounding team.

Starters
South Dakota State
Guard – Gabby Boever – 5-8 – Sophomore – Averaging 5.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.2 steals.
Guard – Ashley Eide – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 14.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.
Forward – Leah Dietel – 6-1 – Senior – Averaging 6.3 points and 5.7 rebounds.
Forward – Hannah Strop – 6-0 – Junior – Averaging 3.5 points and 3.6 rebounds.
Forward – Megan Waytashek – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 13.8 points and 4.5 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 3.4 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 2.3 points and 3.2 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 13.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 11.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Clean With the Ball – Omaha has been sloppy with the ball in a number of games lately. Turned it over on 33.7% of possessions against Chicago State and 32.5% against North Dakota State. Yuck. There have been some good performances but only four in the 17.1-19.9 range… and those are their best four! South Dakota State is 2nd in turnovers forced in league play so they will be looking to make Omaha rack up that turnover total. Omaha’s a very efficient team… when they get a shot.

2.) Perimeter Battle – Both teams can shoot the long ball, South Dakota State a little better. Omaha’s been cold a lot lately though they finally heated up against North Dakota State. Having a big shooting day from three, taking a lot of them, and not letting South Dakota State run rampage would be a huge bonus.

3.) Strengths on the Glass – Omaha is a strong offensive rebounding team, South Dakota State is a strong defensive rebounding team. We’ll see which side wins out but if Omaha is going to turn it over a lot they really need to offensive rebound well or shoot amazing.

Prediction
While I’d love to see Omaha win I’m not so sure. I think this will be close but I’d lean towards South Dakota State by something like 63-58.

Massey – South Dakota State wins 63-54
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 67-62.

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