Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 24, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game #17 Preview – North Dakota State

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 2:05 pm

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview North Dakota State - 1-24-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($8, but you do get to listen to me… )
Live Audio (North Dakota State Feed)

Omaha got back to the winning last week when they beat Chicago State and Indiana Dabney. It was a week which hopefully let them get their shooting going again and got some bench players extra minute. Now it’s back to the grind of the Summit League schedule. Omaha will need a strong finish to stay in contention for the postseason. It starts tonight with North Dakota State. Statistically and record wise it may look fairly easy but IUPUI learned the hard way last week not to overlook this Bison team.

North Dakota State
As mentioned earlier North Dakota State knocked off IUPUI last week. That alone should have Omaha’s attention. They’ve had some up and down games but have been better in the last few weeks capped off by the win against IUPUI. Saturday they got down big against Western Illinois but came roaring back to get within a few points, losing 85-83.

This is a team playing better offensively since conference play started. They’re shooting better and turning it over less. Of course they’ve made up for that by forcing less turnovers and allowing their opponents to shoot better… So it hasn’t really helped them overall.

North Dakota State is a good defensive rebounding team which is sort of worrying since Omaha is definitely helped by their offensive rebounding in most games. Omaha will need to hit their shots today since they probably won’t be able to rely on the extra chances.

North Dakota State is led by Katie Birkel, a senior from Lincoln, who is averaging 13.2 points. Birkel has scored over 20 in two of the last three games. Danielle DeGagne is the other player to average double figures with 12.3 per game. She’s also grabbing 6.6 rebounds. They don’t have a great three point shooter, the best was Hannah Linz but she had a recurrence of Hodgkin’s Lymphoma so she’s no longer playing. Now their best three point shooter is probably Jamie Van Kirk at 28.1%. Omaha needs to force North Dakota State to make some threes today.

These two schools used to be regular opponents in the NCC days but haven’t met since 2004. North Dakota State won the last game 94-69 on February 21, 2004. Omaha’s last win was January 26, 2002 in the Fieldhouse.

Top Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
89 – Harvard (81-72)
135 – IUPUI (71-68)
173 – Milwaukee (60-48)
235 – @ Oakland (60-59)
252 – (Neutral) Prairie View A&M (61-56)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
303 – @ Fort Wayne (58-65)
297 – Drake (50-62)
236 – @ Boise State (61-80)
232 – South Dakota (52-73)
215 – @ Northern Colorado (61-75)

Kind of up and down. Definitely some potential as shown last weekend and against Harvard, but some bad losses as well.

Omaha vs. North Dakota State

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 41.7% 33.7% 70.0% 0.894 0.817 24.0 0.843 58.0% 36.5% 30.4% 25.0 52.7% 38.5% 67.6% 2.9
NDSU 37.4% 25.6% 77.2% 0.848 0.965 19.5 0.866 52.0% 43.8% 35.8% 21.0 51.2% 31.8% 71.3% 2.7
Favors.. Omaha Omaha NDSU Omaha Omaha Omaha NDSU Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha NDSU Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Bold indicates the better team in each category.

NDSU is better at FTs, slightly better at assists/to and defensive rebounding. Omaha continues to have a strong statistical profile.

Starters
North Dakota State
Guard – Dani DeGagne – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 12.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.1 steals.
Guard – Katie Birkel – 5-8 – Senior – Averaging 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.8 steals.
Guard – Jamie Van Kirk – 5-9 – Sophomore – Averaging 8.1 points and 3.8 rebounds.
Forward – Liz Keena – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.6 points and 2.2 rebounds.
Forward – Marena Whittle – 5-11 – Freshman – Averaging 7.2 points and 7.3 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Averaging 9.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 3.6 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Averaging 1.8 points and 3.1 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Averaging 13.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – Averaging 12.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Averaging 4.4 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) North Dakota State shot selection – Omaha wants the Bison to take threes, North Dakota State wants to find easier shots for them to hit. Bison will need to be patient and get the shots they want.

2.) Rebounding battle – Omaha is a good offensive rebounding team, North Dakota State is a good defensive rebounding team. The two teams rebounding strengths will compete and the winner in that category might be the difference.

3.) Go To Scoring – Whether it’s Frauendorfer or Blair-Mobley that’s where you can find most of the great scoring performances for Omaha this year. They’ve combined to lead Omaha in scoring in seven straight games and in 15 of the 18 games. It’s important that Frauendorfer and Blair-Mobley both get going as you’ll find a lot of Omaha’s struggles come when one of them is quiet. Frauendorfer had four points against both South Dakota and Western Illinois while Blair-Mobley had six against IUPUI, five against Tulsa, and three against Saint Louis.

To put it another way…
Their average combined point total in the five losses: 19.6
Their average combined point total in the thirteen wins: 27.5
Average drop-off in losses: 7.9
Omaha’s average margin of defeat: 10.6 (6.5 outside of the Western Illinois game)

Prediction
I think Omaha gets a nice home win tonight in preparation for South Dakota State. I’ll take the Mavericks 71-56.

Massey – Omaha wins 65-56.
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 67-54.

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