Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 24, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game #22 Preview – South Dakota

Filed under: Men's Basketball,Omaha Mavericks,Previews — Jon Green @ 12:25 pm

Omaha Men's Basketball Preview South Dakota - 1-24-13

Live Stats
No Live Video
Live Audio (Robert Ford – 1620 AM)

Omaha competed well at Cal State Bakersfield but came home with another loss. At 5-16 another losing season is guaranteed but Omaha still has an outside shot at making a run at 10 wins. A win tonight would sure help that cause. Now just how doable getting a win tonight is, that’s another question. While Omaha did nearly win the matchup in Vermillion last year, they were beaten 95-72 in Ralston in late December.

South Dakota
The Coyotes have been very up and down over the last few weeks. They got beaten 92-66 by North Dakota State on a Thursday night and turned around on Saturday and upset South Dakota State. Then after losing games to Kansas City and at Fort Wayne they won at Oakland on Saturday. Which High upside to this team but definitely a low downside. Perhaps even low enough for Omaha to take advantage of.

South Dakota is a fairly good shooting team, especially from deep (37.7% – 36th in the country). They are exceptional at free throws where they hit 79.1%, 2nd best in the NCAA. They average 1.03 ppp, 3rd in the Summit and 79th in the country. They’re not nearly as good on the defensive side where they give up 1.102 ppp, 338th in the country.

Side note… the defense doesn’t seem very strong this year in the Summit League. Here’s the bottom six teams… all in the bottom 100 of the NCAA.
Omaha – 344th – 1.16 ppp
IUPUI – 343rd – 1.13 ppp
South Dakota – 336th – 1.10 ppp
Kansas City – 329th – 1.09 ppp
Oakland – 321st – 1.08 ppp
South Dakota State – 260th – 1.03 ppp

Leading scorer is Juevol Myles who is 4th in the conference with 15.5 per game. He’s been held under double figures five times this year but scored 20 or more seven times as well. He had just six in the win at Omaha, proof they are not a one-man team. Three other players (Brandon Bos, Karim Rowson, and Trevor Gruis) average double figures.

In Omaha it was sophomore guard Brandon Bos who led the way with 23 points and 10 rebounds. South Dakota shot 58% from the field and 52% from deep. Omaha won the battle of the turnovers and stayed close on the offensive glass. They lost out mostly due to South Dakota’s tremendous shooting and good FT production.

A big help for the Mavericks today could be CJ Carter. He only played 24 minutes in the first matchup scoring just four points. John Karhoff scored 18 in the first game and had seven rebounds including five offensive boards.

Best Five Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
61 – South Dakota State (74-71)
132 – N.C. Central (81-69)
172 – Morehead State (85-75)
173 – @ Oakland (97-78)
282 – IUPUI (88-68)

Worst Five Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
289 – @ Fort Wayne (60-62)
257 – Kansas City (86-90)
226 – Ball State (73-80)
226 – @ Ball State (51-62)
178 – @ Green Bay (55-72)

Obviously the South Dakota State win is very good but there are a few other good ones. Some of the losses not good especially the one at home to Kansas City a couple weeks ago.

Omaha vs. South Dakota

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 45.7% 35.4% 67.4% 0.952 1.163 21.0 0.829 51.0% 49.4% 38.9% 17.0 46.0% 25.5% 61.9% 2.6
USD 44.8% 37.7% 79.1% 1.030 1.102 18.2 1.008 51.0% 46.5% 36.3% 16.0 46.9% 25.9% 65.4% 3.2
Favors.. Omaha USD USD USD USD USD USD Tie USD USD Omaha USD USD USD USD

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League. Better team in bold

Omaha is the better offensive teams in this matchup but is also worse defensively. Cal State Bakersfield with the advantage on the boards.

Starters
South Dakota
Guard – Juevol Myles – 6-1 – Senior – Averaging 15.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 steals
Guard – Brandon Bos – 6-1 – Sophomore – Averaging 10.4 points and 3.4 rebounds.
Guard – Casey Kasperbauer – 6-1 – Freshman – Averaging 8.9 points and 1.7 rebounds.
Forward – Tyler Flack – 6-7 – Freshman – Averaging 5.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks
Center – Trevor Gruis – 6-10 – Junior – Averaging 11.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1 block.

Omaha
Point Guard – CJ Carter – 6-0 – Sophomore – Averaging 8.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists.
Guard – Alex Phillips – 6-3 – Junior – Averaging 9.1 points and 2.5 rebounds.
Guard – Justin Simmons – 6-3 – Junior – Averaging 14.8 points and 3.8 rebounds.
Forward – Alex Welhouse – 6-7 – Senior – Averaging 7.6 points and 4.6 rebounds.
Center – John Karhoff – 6-8 – Junior -  Averaging 11.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

Three Things to Watch
1) Scoring battle – Both of these teams shoot fairly well and more importantly neither of these teams has been playing great defense. This sets up well for an old fashioned shootout. Omaha’s been over 44% in last the last six games and hit 50% in four of those.

2.) Rebounding – Neither team is a great rebounding team so there might be an opportunity here. Omaha did fairly well on the offensive glass last time but were beat badly on the defensive glass.

3.) John Karhoff – As mentioned earlier he had a good showing against South Dakota the first time. He’s got an interesting matchup inside with Trevor Gruis who went for 15 points and six rebounds last time.

Prediction
Defense, defense, defense. Omaha allowed yet another team to have their best offensive night of the year on Saturday in California. Amazingly South Dakota is not one of those teams despite scoring 1.22 ppp against Omaha last time. Their season high is 1.37 against Kansas City… in a loss. Obviously Omaha could have a freakish night shooting but it’s hard to see them winning if they can’t keep South Dakota below about 80 points.

I’ll take South Dakota 88-75.

Massey – South Dakota wins 90-77.
RealTimeRPI – South Dakota wins 87-64.

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