Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 19, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game 21 Preview – Cal State Bakersfield

Filed under: Men's Basketball,Omaha Mavericks,Previews — Jon Green @ 12:24 pm

Omaha Men's Basketball Preview Cal State Bakersfield - 1-19-13

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Omaha struggled with Western Illinois last Saturday in a very tough matchup in Ralston. Omaha shot fairly well considering their opponent at 44% and had an impressive offensive game. Unfortunately the Mavericks really struggled defensively and allowed 1.3 points per possession. It was a game where for large stretches Western Illinois looked dominant and they shot 57% from the field. Now Omaha heads west to California where Cal State Bakersfield looks to pick up only their 5th D1 win of the season.

Cal State Bakersfield
The Roadrunners were one of the top D2 basketball programs before transition to D1 and haven’t found a ton of success at this level. They have been playing as an independent college and have only won more than 10 games once in the last six years. That was last year where they went 16-15 and even played at Utah State in the CIT, losing 75-69.

This year the Roadrunners have played a schedule that’s been challenging at times but has avoided embarrassment for the most part. They haven’t been able to pick up a lot of wins but have been better at home where they are 4-3. They haven’t played in ten days so they’ll be anxious to get back to playing games.

Cal State Bakersfield is stronger on defense than offense, though they are fairly middling at both sides of the ball. They’re one of the worst shooting teams at just 39.3% (317th) but don’t turn the ball over a ton (19.4% of possessions) and are better from three (33.8%) to give them an offensive ppp of 0.909 (281st). Defensively they force a lot of turnovers (22% of possessions) but when the other team does get shots they shoot fairly well (46.7%). The Roadrunners are not great on the glass, but not as bad as Omaha as either grabbing 51% of the misses.

The best player on the team is senior Stephon Carter, on track to be the school’s all-time leading scorer. Carter is averaging 15.6 points and 4.9 rebounds. He also chips in 2.4 assists and 2.3 steals while shooting 45% from the field. Carter is decidedly not a three point shooter, only 1-13 from deep this year.

Other players to keep an eye on are junior Brandon Barnes who averages 11.5 points and 4.2 rebounds and sophomore Javonte Maynor who averages 11 points and shoots 41% from deep. They have a bigger guard who could give Omaha problems in Tyrone White, a 6-7 guard/forward who averages 9.6 points and 4.2 rebounds. The other forward who starts for Cal State Bakersfield is 6-8 Adam Young who has shown great range this year with 20 3’s. He averages 4.9 rebounds and 7.1 points. It’s a team rebounding effort out of the Roadrunners, no one averages more than 4.9 and five players average at least 4.2.

The Roadrunners lost their last game 74-62 at home to Cal State Fullerton. Stephon Carter scored 14 points to lead the way while grabbing six rebounds, four assists, and two steals. However he turned it over six times and the team turned it over 24 times and allowed the Titans to shoot 53%.

Rod Barnes has been the head coach at Cal State Bakersfield the last couple years. Barnes is a well known coach who was formerly at Mississippi from 1998-2006. At Ole Miss he was the Naismith Coach of the Year in 2001 when he took them to the Sweet 16. After leaving Ole Miss he coached at Gerogia State where he helped rebuild the program there. The Panthers went 22-11 last year after Barnes left. A result of a strong team he left or the new coach… former IUPUI head coach Ron Hunter.

Last year Omaha lost to Cal State Bakersfield twice in a 13 day span in February. 75-65 in Omaha and then 84-63 in Bakersfield. Carter scored 23 in Bakersfield and 21 at the Fieldhouse. Zach Lamb scored 27 for Bakersfield in Omaha last year but hurt his ankle early this year and is out for the season. Another guard, Issiah Grayson, who had 11 assists in the game in Bakersfield, is sitting out the year after a knee injury. The Roadrunners will be a dangerous team next year in the WAC.

Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
205 – N.C. A&T (60-52)
224 – @ CSU Fullerton (72-70)
267 – TX San Antonio (85-52)
334 – (Neutral) Miss. Valley St. (69-64)
N/A – Westmont (77-74)
N/A – La Verne (69-49)

Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com

20 – @ UNLV (63-84)
27 – @ Colorado St. (58-78)
33 – @ San Diego St. (57-72)
59 – @ Wyoming (49-63)
66 – @ California (65-78)
83 – @ South Dakota St (63-69)
154 – TX Arlington (60-62)
208 – (Neutral) North Florida (70-80)
214 – Loyola Marymnt (73-76)
214 – @ Loyola Marymnt (66-73)
216 – @ Portland (51-69)
224 – CSU Fullerton (62-74)
259 – @ Sacramento St. (67-85)

A lot of tough games so far this year for the Road Runners. No really awful losses and only three losses at home, all to top 225 teams.

Omaha vs. Cal State Bakersfield

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 45.5% 35.1% 66.8% 0.942 1.160 21.1 0.810 51.0% 49.2% 38.5% 17.0 46.0% 25.4% 61.9% 2.6
CSB 39.3% 33.8% 70.9% 0.909 1.021 19.4 0.880 51.0% 46.7% 36.1% 22.0 51.0% 31.2% 69.9% 1.8
Favors.. Omaha Omaha CSB Omaha CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB CSB Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League.

Omaha is the better offensive teams in this matchup but is also worse defensively. Cal State Bakersfield with the advantage on the boards.

Starters
Cal State Bakersfield
Guard – Brandon Barnes – 6-1 – Junior – Atlanta, Georgia/Lipscomb – Averaging 11.5 points, and 4.2 rebounds.
Guard – Javante Maynor – 6-0 – Sophomore – Atlanta, Georgia/Georgia State – Averaging 11.0 points and 1.9 rebounds.
Guard – Stephon Carter – 6-3 – Senior – Bakersfield, California – Averaging 15.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.3 steals.
Guard/Forward – Tyrone White – 6-7 – Senior – Portland, Orgeon/North Idaho College – Averaging 9.6 points and 4.3 rebounds.
Forward – Adam Young – 6-8 – Senior – Las Vegas, Nevada/Barton CC – Averaging 7.1 points and 4.9 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – CJ Carter – 6-0 – Sophomore – Omaha, Nebraska – Averaging 8.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists.
Guard – Alex Phillips – 6-3 – Junior – Smiths Station, Alabama/New Mexico JC – Averaging 8.8 points and 2.2 rebounds.
Guard – Justin Simmons – 6-3 – Junior – Milwaukee, Wisconsin/Butler CC – Averaging 14.6 points and 4.0 rebounds.
Forward – Alex Welhouse – 6-7 – Senior – Kaukauna, Wisconsin – Averaging 7.5 points and 4.7 rebounds.
Center – John Karhoff – 6-8 – Junior – Omaha, Nebraska – Averaging 11.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

Three Things to Watch
1) Omaha shooting – Omaha’s been red hot from the field lately shooting over .50% in three straight games before the 44% (which was impressive) against Western Illinois. The Mavericks would seem to be poised for another great shooting performance this week as Cal State Bakersfield is 309th in FG% allowed. Look for another Omaha shooting performance above 50%

2.) Defense – Well this hasn’t been Omaha’s strong suit this year. Omaha has allowed greater than 1 ppp in each game in 2013 (four straight). I’m not predicting the Mavericks hold the Roadrunners below 1, but the fact that the Roadrunners are only averaging 0.909 gives hope that Omaha can slow them down tonight.

3.) Ball control – Omaha’s had their good performances (9.8% rate vs. Western Illinois) and their awful ones (30.3% at South Dakota State). Where they end up today is anyone’s guess but not turning it over and shooting well could provide an opportunity to really do well offensively. Unfortunately Cal State Bakersfield does force their opponents to turn it over on 22% of possessions so Omaha won’t find this easy.

Prediction
I’m not quite ready to believe in Omaha getting their first road win of the season. Think it’s definitely possible but I expect Bakersfield to win a good game 84-73.

Massey – Cal State Bakersfield wins 81-70.
RealTimeRPI – Cal State Bakersfield wins 79-68.

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