Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 17, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game 17 Preview – Chicago State

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 11:37 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview Chicago State - 1-17-13

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Last week was not a good week for Omaha with the 11 point loss at IUPUI followed by their worst performance of the season, a 71-44 loss to Western Illinois. Omaha had one of their worst games defensively and offensively at the same time and the result was a lot of questions about where the season goes from here. Where the season goes this week is a road trip to Chicago State on Thursday. It’s a great time for this game, the Cougars are reeling themselves, losers of 14 straight and just 1-16 on the season. They’ve also lost most of their games by 20+ points and their only win is over an NAIA school.

Chicago State
To say Chicago State has struggled would be an understatement. After a home loss to Milwaukee and a road loss to Missouri they did get a win vs. Indiana Northwest on November 16th. They haven’t won since. They lost by two at home to Central Methodist in late November and by three vs. Southern Illinois in late December. Other than those two games every other loss is by 20 or more. The latest was a 71-38 loss at Utah Valley last Saturday.

Chicago State is one of the worst shooting teams in Division 1 at 28.8% (344th out of 345) and only score .606 points per possession (344th). Defensively they aren’t much better, giving up .993 points per possession (338th). What are they “good” at? Well they are 211th in 3FG Defense (31%) and 143rd in blocks (3.5). They are also 76th in turnovers forced (19.9). Chicago State is willing to play a fairly up tempo game.

Surprisingly despite starting three forwards of 6-0 or greater in the last few games, the cougars allow opposing teams to shoot 48.5% from inside the arc. Chicago State also allows opposing teams to grab 41.8% of available rebounds (343rd). Defensively on the glass they only grab about 52.5% of missed shots. That means teams are getting a 2nd chance on almost half of their missed shots. This could be a big area to exploit for a Maverick team that grabs 36.5% of their own misses.

Chicago State does not have a single player averaging double figures. Their leading scorer is sophomore guard Tierra Williams who is averaging 8.8 points. Williams has only started five games this year for Chicago State, so she’s been scoring those off the bench mostly. Speaking of the bench, Chicago State has nine players that have started at least five games this season. They’ve used nine different lineups, so our guess down below is really truly only a guess. Whoever starts they clearly have a lot of different options to turn to off the bench and can try different combinations.

Sophomore forward Jasmine Collins averages 7.1 points and three rebounds while sophomore guard Jackie Jones is perhaps their best player averaging 7.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and two steals per game. Only four players on the team shoot over 30% and only two shoot over 40% (one of those only has hit 11 shots this year). Omaha by comparison, despite the slow week they just came through, has eight over 30% and five over 40% with three of those at 50% or higher! I think of Jamie Nash as having a rough shooting year, yet Nash’s 32.4% shooting is fantastic compared to the 24% shooting of starting guard Jackie Jones for the Cougars.

Things aren’t any better from three where only two players have more than four threes on the year and they are sitting at 24.2% (Tierra Williams) and 25% (Jazzmyn Harvey). Again by comparison Omaha has four players with four or more threes and their percentages range from 22.4% (Nash) to 41.4% (Blair-Mobley).

It’s been a rapid fall for Chicago State who just two years ago went 24-10 and won two games in the WBI before losing 93-92 at Cal State Bakersfield. They went 6-24 last year. Coach Angela Jackson has been there for nine seasons and definitely has her hands full with this team, but success may come in the future, this is a young team with just two upperclassmen, both seniors, who combine for 20% of their minutes and only 14% of their starts.

Last time out vs. Utah Valley they got 12 points form Paris Williams and Jackie Jones but went 0-11 from three and just 15-59 from the field in the 71-38 loss. They were outrebounded by 20 and saw Sammie Jensen go 10-15 for 22 points and grab 13 rebounds against them. The Mavericks have to be excited to get back on track tonight and really should win this one going away.

Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
N/A – Indiana Northwest (67-44)

Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
75 – @ Missouri (55-88)89 – @ Hampton (35-87)106 – @ Northern Iowa (41-81)108 – @ Rice (42-68)120 – @ Indiana St. (35-69)126 – Miami (OH) (37-71)128 – @ Northwestern (38-82)147 – Akron (45-86)170 – @ Western Ill. (52-87)211 – Wisc. Milwaukee (58-82)300 – @ Drake (39-67)301 – @ Loyola (IL) (43-81)304 – @ West. Michigan (38-80)307 – Southern Ill. (66-69)313 – @ Utah Valley (38-71)
N/A – Central Methodist (48-50)

Lots of road games but plenty of blowout home losses to teams with RPI’s well lower than Omaha.

Omaha vs. Chicago State

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 41.4% 34.1% 68.9% 0.893 0.824 23.2 0.865 58.0% 36.3% 30.9% 24.0 52.3% 36.5% 66.8% 3.1
Chicago State 28.8% 22.4% 61.6% 0.606 0.993 28.2 0.386 46.0% 43.5% 31.0% 24.0 41.8% 32.2% 52.5% 3.5
Favors.. Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Tie Omaha Omaha Omaha Chicago State

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League.

Chicago State is better in blocks and as good in opposing turnover rate. A lot of the other numbers are extremely poor. Notice the shooting percentages (29% overall, 22% from three) and the defensive rebounding percentage (52.5%) especially.

Starters
Chicago State
Guard – Jackie Jones – 5-5 – Sophomore – Detroit, Michigan – Averaging 7.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.0 steals.
Guard – Caneka Davis – 5-5 – Senior – Chicago, Illinois – Averaging 1.3 points and 1.9 rebounds.
Forward – Jasmine Collins – 6-0 – Sophomore – Richton Park, Illinois – Averaging 7.1 points and 3.0 rebounds.
Forward – Layne Murphy – 6-2 – Freshman – County Club Hills, Illinois – Averaging 5.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks.
Forward – Paris Williams – 6-0 – Sophomore – St. Louis, Missouri – Averaging 6.8 points and 3.1 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Verona, Missouri – Averaging 9.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 3.6 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Lakewood, Colorado – Averaging 1.8 points and 3.1 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Humphrey, Nebraska – Averaging 13.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – St. Paul, Minnesota – Averaging 12.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Carson, California – Averaging 4.4 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Omaha has to start shooting well… right? – Omaha has had some bad shooting performances lately (30.8% @ Western Illinois, 35.2% @ IUPUI, 35.1% @ South Dakota, 34.8% @ Kansas City). Notice those were all on the road right? Perhaps leaving the friendly background of the Sapp Fieldhouse has contributed to the woes. Either way, tonight is a night where Omaha will have no excuses and should shoot the ball well against a team that hasn’t really been able to stop many people this year.

2.) Dominance inside – We covered the stats some above, Chicago State allows opponents to shoot 48.5% inside the arc (Omaha shoots 43.4%). Chicago State shoots only 29.9% inside the arc (Omaha allows 39.3%). Chicago State only grabs 41.8% of available rebounds (Omaha grabs 52.3%). All the numbers point to a big advantage inside for Omaha and the Mavericks will look to exploit it with their post players and driving guards. Hopefully easy baskets in the paint can help get the Mavericks going.

3.) Bench minutes – Omaha’s bench players don’t traditionally get a ton of minutes. Sure Ericka House is usually in more of the game than Carly Cator and both Casse Vaughn and Stacia Gebers take a good chunk of Taijhe Kelly’s minutes, but the Mavericks don’t turn to the bench at all outside of those three. Tonight could be a chance to get those three some more minutes and to get Myhiah Dotzler, Allison Jackson, and Kate Bayes some minutes, and hopefully not at the end of a blowout loss this time!

Prediction
Omaha wins big, 78-40. Paige breaks back out with 24.
Massey – Not available at this time.
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 62-61.

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