Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 10, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game 15 Recap – IUPUI

Filed under: College Sports,Omaha Mavericks,Recaps,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 11:21 pm

It was a night for Omaha to forget on Thursday. The Mavericks trailed earlier (12-2) but cut it to 33-30 at the half and had the lead at 41-35 with 14:57 to go. Then it all came unraveled and IUPUI went on a 25-8 run to end the game with an 11 point win. Ouch. Take one look at the box score and it’s easy to tell exactly what went wrong for the Mavericks. An absolutely awful shooting night (35.2% on FG, 13.3% (2-15) on 3FG) doomed the Mavericks in a game where they did do some positives.

Two of the Mavericks big three were big flops with Jamie Nash going 2-10 and Carolyn Blair-Mobley going an incredibly uncharacteristic 2-11. Paige Frauendorfer wasn’t quite as affected going 4-8 and leading Omaha with 11 points. Why only eight shots? Paige had four fouls and was limited to just 24 minutes. Erica House played 37 minutes in her place and only went 3-11.

Paige picked up her first two fouls within 21 seconds in the first 1:08. She sat from the 18:52 mark until the 11:45 mark (Omaha fell behind 14-5 during that stretch… it was 2-0 when she sat down). She was in until there was 1:45 left of the first half. Over those 10 minutes Omaha went on a 23-19 run. First half with Frauendorfer on the court – Omaha +2, without her Omaha –5.

In the second half Paige picked up foul #3 with 18:51 to go and played through it until picking up foul #4 with 9:56 left. During that stretch Omaha was +2. Paige sat until there were 3:21 left (Omaha –3 while she was out). She never got a shot attempt in the final three minutes (more on that horrific stretch later) and Omaha was –7. Overall Omaha was –3 with her on the court and –8 without her, a slightly noticeable difference.

More significantly Frauendorfer scored 11 points in 24 minutes while her replacement (Ericka House) scored eight in 37 minutes. Paige scored 18.3pts/40min while House was at 8.6pts/40min. If we reassigned those 16 minutes to Paige, Omaha would (theoretically of course) have 4 more points. Still not enough to completely make up the difference but it’s something. I’m not sure that having Paige in the whole game would have swung it all the way, but it was a HUGE problem for Omaha and is just one of those things that happens in the course of the season. Paige probably won’t have a night like tonight the rest of her career probably.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I’ve seen discussions of if coaches should really sit players who have two fouls in the first half or three/four in the 2nd. By sitting Frauendorfer for the time she did Coach Lindley essentially limited her to just 24 minutes. Would Paige have played more than 24 minutes if allowed to just play through foul trouble? By sitting her Coach Lindley did gain the ability to use Paige in the crucial final three minutes (and Omaha was only down four when she came in), but that ended up not being enough. If you’re interested in those discussions here are three articles about it.

http://theoryclass.wordpress.com/2010/04/27/foul-trouble/
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/all_points_are_not_created_equal
http://erikstuart.com/post/629029612/foul-trouble-and-coach-behavior-incentives

I want to get this post up quickly so I haven’t read through all of these in detail tonight. My inclination here is to trust in what Coach Lindley did. It’s important to note that he has the ability to insert Paige at any point even if he is TRYING to save her for the end. He did just this in the first half when Omaha found themselves down 14-5 without her and he used her to get the game back within five. He then took her out with 1:45 left to make sure she didn’t pick up a 3rd foul in the final minutes of the half (easy move).

In the 2nd half he played her through the 3rd foul and felt he needed to save her when she picked up the 4th. It was a one point game. If Omaha could just hang with IUPUI as long as possible he could have his best scorer on the floor in the final minutes to make that extra difference. AND IT WORKED! Omaha was only down four when Paige came back in and had the ball. If you had offered this situation to Coach ahead of time he probably would have done exactly what he did, sitting her until this point. Unfortunately the decision looks bad because when Paige came in Omaha just happened to fall apart and lose the game. They didn’t score with her in the game and didn’t even get a shot for the first two minutes with her on the court. Hindsight is 20/20 and I think even with that hindsight we see Coach Lindley made the right call tonight.

Let’s look at the final three minutes with more detail.

Omaha Possession #1: Jamie Nash has the ball stolen
IUPUI Possession #1: DeAirra Goss finishes the steal with a fastbreak layup. IUPUI BY 6
Omaha Possession #2: Jamie Nash turns it over again.
IUPUI Possession #2: This one is where Omaha had their chances broken I think. The possession starts with 2:42 on the clock. Missed 3 (~0 on shot clock), offensive rebound, missed jumper (~0 on shot clock), offensive rebound, foul by Nash, hit one of two FTs. Time taken off the clock: 1:20 out of 2:42. Ouch. IUPUI BY 7
Omaha Possession #3: Nash was fouled immediately and missed the front end of a 1-and-1. This was the last chance really.
IUPUI Possession #3: After a defensive rebound Nash fouls. IUPUI hits two. IUPUI BY 9
Omaha Possession #4: 3 by Nash blocked by Kerah Nelson
IUPUI Possession #4: Nelson turns it back over to Omaha via Ericka House steal.
Omaha Possession #5: Missed three by Blair-Mobley
IUPUI Possession #5: Nelson hits 2 FTs after grabbing the rebound and being fouled by Vaughn. IUPUI BY 11

And we can stop there… Ugly. I wasn’t watching so I can’t really speculate as to what happened with Nash’s turnovers. We can see that Omaha got beat on the glass twice though when they absolutely HAD to get a stop. Thirty seconds of good defense? Doable. Sixty seconds of good defense? Possible. 1:20 of good defense? Unlikely. Eventually Omaha broke, and by that time so much time had gone that a seven point lead was always going to be really hard to overcome.

Omaha was beat on the boards 40-37, IUPUI is a good rebounding team. Not a bad effort really. They also had 15 turnovers, but that wasn’t horrible either considering how many IUPUI normally forces and the number of possessions. Omaha really lost this game because they couldn’t hit their shots and couldn’t get a stop/defensive rebound when they needed it late.

Thankfully Omaha gets a chance to rebound (ha-ha pun) on Saturday when they take on Western Illinois. It should be an easier game I think and while we can probably admit that Omaha trying to catch South Dakota State is asking too much they still are very much in the running for 2nd with both of their losses coming in close games at South Dakota and IUPUI (possibly their two rivals for that spot). Saturday is another must win in the quest for the WNIT!

It was Over When: When Nash missed the front end of that 1-and-1 (possession #3 above) it was time to admit this comeback wasn’t happening… Not tonight.

Player of the Game: Taijhe Kelly gets the award tonight. Most Mavericks weren’t real good tonight and Kelly did put together a night of six points on five shots and five rebounds in eighteen minutes. She also grabbed two blocks and had a steal. The five rebounds were one away from Casse Vaughn for the team high and Kelly was the only player other than Vaughn with a shooting % over 50% today.

Season Total:
Paige Frauendorfer (5)
Jamie Nash (4)
Carolyn Blair-Mobley (3)
Cathleen Cox (1)
Casse Vaughn (1)
Taijhe Kelly (1)

Efficiency Ratings:
Taijhe Kelly – 11
Casse Vaughn – 8
Paige Frauendorfer – 7
Carly Cator – 3
Jamie Nash – 2
Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 1
Ericka House – 1
Stacia Gebers – 0

Season Average:
Paige Frauendorfer – 14.4
Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 12.9
Jamie Nash – 11.5
Casse Vaughn – 7.9
Ericka House – 6.9
Taijhe Kelly – 5.2
Carly Cator – 3.2
Cathleen Cox – 2.4
Stacia Gebers – 2.1
Kate Bayes – 0.2
Myhiah Dotzler – 0.2
Allison Jackson – 0

Team Ratings: Pace probably favored IUPUI ever so slightly, though maybe not because it was one of their slowest games of the year while it was in the middle for Omaha. Either way Omaha did enough defensively to win in my mind. They still have held teams to 0.91 ppp or less in each of their losses. It’s not that the defense suddenly fails and Omaha can’t stop a team, it’s that they can’t score enough to win the game without a ridiculously good defensive performance. This one was the 2nd worst of the season (0.66 against Saint Louis) and all four of their worst performances have resulted in losses.

Omaha did fine on TO Rate, 8th best rate of the 15 games, but again we see there is no correlation between controlling possession and scoring points for this team. So bizarre. If anything it’s almost related in the opposite manner. Not sure if this is because teams who are less aggressive and force less turnovers are playing tighter defense and not taking as many chances. This could lead to less open looks and thus worse shooting.

Possessions: 69
Offensive Points per Possession : 0.71
Defensive Points per Possession : 0.90
eFG%: 37.0%
Turnover Rate: 21.7%
Offensive Rebounding: 21.2%
Defensive Rebounding: 71.0%
A/B%: 52.6%
Floor%: 37.7%
FT Prod: 16.7

Response to 3 things to watch:

1) Where IUPUI’s shots come from – Well IUPUI shot 35% from 3 (on the season 28%, Omaha allows 28%). It was definitely a better % than I expected them to hit and they ended up taking 37% of their shots from 3. It worked out really well as they were only slightly better from 2 (13-34, 38%). As we talked about earlier though, defense wasn’t the problem today.

2.) Record watch – Well Nash is still 10 points from 1,000 while Frauendorfer is still 36 away. Nash will have a good shot at getting there on Saturday. Jamie also had two steals so she’s only five away from tieing the record there. Paige needs seven rebounds to get to 600 and 17 to get to 10th all-time. Paige grabbing only three rebounds and Omaha only getting beat by three rebounds is very surprising to me. Good team rebounding with Paige being out more than usual.

3.) Limiting turnovers. – Well I kind of debated whether it would matter and it apparently didn’t. Omaha turned it over on 21.7% of their possessions, and had perhaps the best performance against IUPUI’s defense in this category. Only 15 turnovers, lower than any other team so far this year vs. IUPUI(Indiana had 16, Oakland had 19). I think next time I’ll go with shooting over turnovers in this spot…

Prediction Response: I was very close on IUPUI’s total (60 instead of 57) but I was way off on the way Omaha would play offensively (49 instead of 63). The closest to getting the margin was RealTimeRPI who had IUPUI winning by four. Needless to say IUPUI was impressive tonight in the end.

Upcoming Opponent: Next up for Omaha is Western Illinois at 4:30 from Macomb on Saturday. 1180 AM The Zone 2 will have coverage of that one, Robert Ford on the call. More notes from this game tomorrow as well as a preview late tomorrow afternoon of the Western Illinois game.

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