Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 10, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game 15 Preview – IUPUI

Filed under: Omaha Mavericks,Previews,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 9:00 am

Omaha Women's Basketball Preview IUPUI - 1-9-13

Live Stats
Live Video ($5)
Live Audio

Omaha was fairly impressive last week at home with a big win over Oakland followed by a tight game on Saturday against Fort Wayne. Trailing by a point with around four minutes left the Mavericks went on an 11-0 run to win the game 60-50. Paige Frauendorfer pulled out of her shooting slump with a 23 point outing and the Mavericks locked down defensively when it counted to grab their 3rd conference win. Now the Mavericks head on the road to an IUPUI team that was dominant in a win over Western Illinois last weekend (55-36) but also lost a road game at Oakland to end the 2012 portion of their schedule. Which Jaguar team will Omaha meet in Indianapolis on Thursday?

IUPUI
It’s hard to know what to make of IUPUI at this point. Their conference portion of the schedule saw them win at Fort Wayne by five and lost at Oakland by nine. So that would seem to suggest they are below Omaha for sure. The 19 point win over Western Illinois is pretty impressive though and wins against Indiana State and Belmont in the non-conference are also impressive. The resume is absent of any bad losses as well, the worst one being the loss at Oakland. They are 6-2 at home with the losses to Butler and Youngstown State.

The Jaguars are not led by one player in particular. DeAirra Goss leads in points (14.1ppg), Kerah Nelson, 1st-team All-Summit a year ago, leads in rebounds (5.7rpg) and is 2nd in points (13.3ppg), while Katie Comello leads in assists (2.4apg) IUPUI has started a lot of players this year but the starting lineup from their last game was four juniors and a senior. Could see a starting grid of nine upperclassmen in Indianapolis. They have a lot of depth as eight players average between 15 and 30 minutes a game, so Omaha will be seeing fresh legs as the Omaha starters play 38-40 minutes.

They are a good shooting team, though less so from 3 (where they don’t take a ton of looks). They are dominant on the glass (54.4% of available rebounds) and have an interesting identity in being the worst team in the Summit League at maintaining possession (turnovers on 25.6% of possessions) and being the best team at forcing the other team to turn it over (turnovers on 31% of possessions). This fast pressing style means they have more possessions per game than any other Summit League team. They are good defensively (2nd in the Summit in ppp) due to the good defensive rebounding and turnover% as teams shoot 41.5% against them.

IUPUI is coached by Austin Parkinson who is in 3rd season with a 25-50 record. The Jaguars have been above .500 just three times in the last 10 years, the best a 17-11 season in 2005-06. They’ve usually been a bottom level team in conference outside of a four year stretch from 2005-2009 where they won double digit games three times and went 7-7 in the other year.

After winning just three and four games in back-to-back years they got a 13 win season last year including seven Summit League wins and a Summit League tournament victory over North Dakota State. The program definitely seems to be on the rise and if they can continue some of their early success from this season they could finish in the top half of the conference.

Against Western Illinois the Jaguars held Western Illinois to just 23% shooting (1-14 from 3) and forced 20 turnovers. They won the battle on the boards 48-35 and rolled to the 19 point win. The Leathernecks had more FTs (15) than FGs (10) and scored just .52 points per possession while scoring on only 25.4% of their possessions. IUPUI didn’t shoot great either, just 33% from the field and 23% from 3. They had 15 turnovers as well, not the most impressive offensive game. DeAirra Goss led the way with 15 points while Dee-Dee Bellamy and Akilah Sims grabbed eight rebounds a piece.

Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
150 – Indiana St. (71-66)
181 – @ Belmont (61-53)
190 – Western Ill. (55-36)
200 – Valparaiso (75-69)
279 – West. Michigan (75-67)
292 – @ IPFW (79-74)
N/A – Grace (107-48)
N/A – Goshen (87-31)

Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
12 – @ Purdue (53-78)
51 – Youngstown St. (57-58)
129 – Butler (58-67)
137 – @ Indiana (49-60)
154 – @ Wright St. (71-75)
193 – @ Eastern Illinois (60-71)
233 – @ Oakland (59-68)

Solid resume that has all but one of the losses above the 200 RPI mark. Good at home winning three games against teams in the top 200 and challenging a Youngstown State team that is nearly in the top 50, losing by one.

Omaha vs. IUPUI

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 42.5% 35.3% 68.9% 0.923 0.799 23.1 0.913 59.0% 35.7% 28.8% 25.0 53.0% 38.1% 66.6% 3.1
IUPUI 40.8% 27.8% 63.8% 0.827 0.812 25.6 0.680 49.0% 41.5% 30.2% 31.0 54.4% 39.2% 68.1% 2.0
Favors.. Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha IUPUI IUPUI IUPUI IUPUI Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League.

Omaha is the superior team offensively and defensively. The Mavericks fall behind in every rebounding category and in opposing turnover ratio. Omaha doesn’t have the best turnover ratio themselves, so that could be an area for concern. Omaha wasn’t real impressive on the boards against Fort Wayne so hopefully they play a little better there in this one. Notice IUPUI’s poor 3FG% (27.8%). Omaha only allows opponents to shoot 28.8% from 3, so that could be a big advantage if they can force IUPUI into a lot of 3’s.

Starters
IUPUI
Guard – Dee-Dee Bellamy – 5-3 – Junior – Detroit, Michigan – Averaging 4.0 points and 3.0 rebounds.
Guard – Katie Comello – 5-15 – Junior – Cincinnati, Ohio – Averaging 9.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.1 steals.
Guard – DeAirra Goss – 5-10 – Junior – Indianapolis, Indiana – Averaging 14.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.
Forward – Kerah Nelson – 5-10 – Junior – St. Petersburg, Florida – Averaging 13.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.
Center – Clara Mitchell – 6-1 – Senior – Lexington, Kentucky – Averaging 2.7 points and 3.9 rebounds.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Verona, Missouri – Averaging 10.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 3.8 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Lakewood, Colorado – Averaging 1.8 points and 3.2 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Humphrey, Nebraska – Averaging 13.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.7 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – St. Paul, Minnesota – Averaging 12.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Carson, California – Averaging 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Where IUPUI’s shots come from – Since Omaha is much stingier against the 3 and IUPUI shoots much better from inside they will want to get it inside as much as possible. Of IUPUI shooters with at least 10 made 3FG, only Nicole Rogers is over 30%, and she sits at just 35.6%. If Omaha can take away the inside looks I think they can beat IUPUI by forcing them to take 3’s they won’t hit.

2.) Record watch – Here’s the marks we are watching this weekend… Jamie Nash needs 17 points to reach 1,000 for her career, Paige Frauendorfer needs 47 (how many of you knew Jamie has actually scored more career points?). Jamie needs seven steals to tie Kriss Edwards for the all-time career steals mark. Paige Frauendorfer is 10 rebounds away from 600 and 20 away from the 10th place spot on the all-time charts.

3.) Limiting turnovers. – This stat has fairly surprisingly not made the difference between wins and losses this year it would seem. Omaha has seen their three losses come in the 6th best games they’ve had, all at 21.1% or below. Still I think that’s more flukey than meaningful and limiting turnovers is still a good way to improve their chances of winning. Since IUPUI forces a lot of turnovers it must be noted that Omaha’s worst performance came against Arkansas-Pine Bluff when they turned it over 32.1% of the time. Of course they won that game by 4… so who knows. Omaha seems to shoot a lot better when they turn it over for some reason. This graph shows the two for each game, wins in blue while losses are in red… there is no strong trend between what % of possessions end in turnovers and points per possession, especially when you consider the left side of the chart is better turnover rates!  You do see the three losses have been in the worst offensive ppp games, that’s not terribly surprising though. Defense is fairly consistent for the Mavericks and most games they put up a defensive number that only needs a solid offensive performance to win.

image

Prediction
I had thought loss coming in but the more I like at the stats the more I think Omaha can win this game. I don’t think IUPUI is going to shoot great against Omaha and if they can force them into 3’s this plays right into Omaha’s hands. Omaha looked really good on the road at Kansas City, had a hard fought win at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and were just a few easy misses away from beating South Dakota. I’ll take Omaha 63-57.
Massey – IUPUI wins 59-61.
RealTimeRPI – IUPUI wins 64-60.

Advertisements

Leave a Comment »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: