Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 5, 2013

2012-13 Omaha Women’s Basketball – Game 14 Preview – Fort Wayne

Filed under: College Sports,Omaha Mavericks,Women's Basketball — Jon Green @ 10:21 am

Omaha-IPFW-Women-1-5-13

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Omaha opened their home conference slate with an impressive 59-41 win over Oakland. The Mavericks came out slow, as they have a lot of the year, and trailed by one at the half after having more turnovers than field goals in the first half. The second half was another story as the Mavericks started hitting their shots, took care of the ball, and played stifling defense giving up only 16 points in the second half and running away with the game. Now they take on a Fort Wayne squad and look to go to 3-1 in conference ahead of a tough road trip next weekend.

Fort Wayne
It’s been a tough year for the Mastodons who started off 3-3 with a road win at Southern Illinois along the way before losing five straight in a difficult stretch. Things might have turned the corner on Sunday though when Fort Wayne dominated Western Illinois, a team many have in the top three or four of the Summit League, 80-49. If nothing else that win shows Fort Wayne has the capability to play with any team in the league this year.

Fort Wayne has taken a while to grow in Division I and has only one winning season, 20-11 in 2010-11. That was also their best conference season, going 13-5 that year. Chris Paul has been their coach since December 2005 and is the all-time leader in victories at the school. Fort Wayne struggled last year finishing a disappointing 9-21 (6-12) and going 1-13 on the road.

Fort Wayne is led by junior forward Amanda Hyde who averages 20.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.8 steals. Hyde can really fill a stat sheet and can hit the three as well (16-49), a true all-around threat. She scored a NCAA season-high and school record 43 points in their win at Southern Illinois and has gone for 20+ in six games this years. She’s scored 30 and 25 in the last two games and Omaha will be trying to key on her today.

Fort Wayne starts twin sisters Rachel and Stefanie Mauk on the perimeter. Stefanie is more of a three point shooter (74 of her 92 shots from 3) while Rachel ventures inside more for her looks. Stefanie is a better rebounder as well, leading the team with 7.3 per game. Other starters include Haley Seibert, averaging eight points per game and shooting 46% from 3, and Erin Murphy averaging 10.4 points.

Omaha will want to avoid fouls today as Fort Wayne has three starters shooting over 85% from the line. Murphy is the best at 87.5% while Hyde shoots only 85.5%. Hyde averages over 5 FTs a game to contribute a quarter of her scoring average. Omaha is 14th in the country in fouls per game, just 12.8, so Hyde might struggle to get to the line.

Against Western Illinois the Mastodons held a 35-20 lead the break and then pulled away in the second half for the 31 point win, 80-49. Amanda Hyde had 25, Erin Murphy had 21, and Stefanie Mauk had 17 for Fort Wayne, a similar three-headed attack as the Mavericks had on Thursday. Fort Wayne was hot from three hitting 52% (11-21) only turned it over 10 times in the win.

Wins, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
162 – Western Ill. (80-49)300 – Coastal Carolina (51-46)326 – @ Southern Ill. (78-65)
N/A – Grace (68-52)
N/A – Rochester (71-59)

Losses, ranked by RPI – realtimerpi.com
12 – Purdue (54-69)25 – @ Michigan St. (36-64)145 – Detroit (58-88)156 – @ Indiana (47-64)160 – IUPUI (74-79)200 – SIU-Edwardsville (67-74)200 – @ SIU-Edwardsville (54-61)228 – Valparaiso (73-82)323 – @ Ball St. (46-53)

Well until Thursday night there wasn’t a lot positive to say about Fort Wayne’s season. All of their previous wins were over teams outside the top 299 and a road loss at Ball State didn’t look good. Now the notice has been served that the Mastodons have the potential to spring upsets this year.

Omaha vs. Fort Wayne

Team FG% 3FG% FT% O-PPP D-PPP TO Rt A/TO A/B% Def FG% Def 3FG% Opp TO Rt Reb% Off Reb% Def Reb% BPG
Omaha 42.5% 35.6% 67.9% 0.919 0.808 23.2 0.901 59.0% 36.1% 30.1% 25.0 52.2% 38.2% 66.4% 3.4
Fort Wayne 39.1% 33.5% 78.4% 0.877 0.985 22.4 0.781 53.0% 43.9% 29.5% 24.0 48.0% 33.2% 63.4% 1.8
Favors.. Omaha Omaha Fort Wayne Omaha Omaha Fort Wayne Omaha Omaha Omaha Fort Wayne Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha Omaha

Green = 1,2, or 3 in the Summit League. Red = 7,8, or 9 in the Summit League.

Just like the Thursday matchup Omaha has the edge in nearly every category. Fort Wayne has the advantage at the FT line, protecting the ball (Turnover Rate) and in defensive 3FG%. Omaha is the best team in the league statistically in offense and defense.

Starters
Fort Wayne
Guard – Rachel Mauk – 5-10 – Junior – Lima, Ohio – Averaging 5.4 points and 2.1 rebounds.
Guard – Stefanie Mauk – 5-10 – Junior – Lima, Ohio – Averaging 6.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.
Guard – Haley Seibert – 5-5 – Sophomore – Terre Haute, Indiana – Averaging 8.0 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
Guard – Erin Murphy – 5-7 – Junior – Seymour, Indiana – Averaging 10.4 points and 2.1 rebounds.
Forward – Amanda Hyde – 5-10 – Junior – Findlay, Ohio – Averaging 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.8 steals.

Omaha
Point Guard – Jamie Nash – 5-4 – Senior – Verona, Missouri – Averaging 10.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 3.8 steals.
Guard – Carly Cator – 5-9 – Senior – Lakewood, Colorado – Averaging 1.6 points and 3.0 rebounds.
Guard – Paige Frauendorfer – 6-0 – Senior – Humphrey, Nebraska – Averaging 13.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.7 steals.
Guard – Carolyn Blair-Mobley – 5-10 – Senior – St. Paul, Minnesota – Averaging 12.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists.
Center – Taijhe Kelly – 6-4 – Sophomore – Carson, California – Averaging 4.5 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.

Three Things to Watch
1) Defense – Couldn’t come up with a catchy name here, but here’s my thoughts. Amanda Hyde is probably going to get hers. I wouldn’t come into today’s game hoping to hold her to 10, she’ll probably get 15-20. That’s fine. What’s key is that she doesn’t go for 40 and that you don’t let Muprhy, Seibert, or any other Mastodons to go off for 15-20. If anyone gets really going then it’s time to take them away.

2.) Jamie Nash record watch – Today could be the day where Jamie Nash sets the school record for career steals. Nash has 468 career assists, six away from matching Jennifer Mitchell’s school record. Nash has six or more assists in ten games this season and six of the last seven games. Nash is further away from the school record in steals and probably won’t get there this week. With a big game she could reach 1,000 points (22 away).

3.) Getting other players going – The Mavericks won’t be able to win every game with their big three carrying nearly all the load, so if they can get Ericka House, Casse Vaughn, or Taijhe Kelly going more consistently that should help them when the big three struggle to make shots. Vaughn has hit double figures five times and seems to be the most likely to contribute at times. She had zero though and didn’t do enough defensively to get on the court Thursday only playing nine minutes. House has hit double figures seven times, but has struggled to find three point looks in the last couple games (1-3). Taijhe Kelly has yet to break out as a scorer but after going for five or more in eight straight games early in the year she’s had only eight points total in the last four.

Prediction
I think that Omaha will win this one fairly easily. The stats seem to show Omaha being the better team and they’ve been playing well lately. Omaha wins 67-51 with Blair-Mobley leading the way with 20.
Massey – Omaha wins 66-56.
RealTimeRPI – Omaha wins 74-56.

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