Maverick Maniac's Musings

November 18, 2012

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game 3 Recap – Tulane

Filed under: College Sports,Men's Basketball,Omaha Mavericks — Jon Green @ 8:41 am

After shooting well in the loss to Texas Tech it was about time for Omaha to go cold and see a game go by where they couldn’t hit a shot. That was the story on Friday as the Mavericks went 16-55 and hit only eight shots in each half. The poor shooting extended to almost everyone with John Karhoff (2-12) and Alex Welhouse (1-6) probably looking the worst. In a really positive afternoon, Matt Hagerbaumer played good minutes and grabbed seven rebounds over his 17 minutes of playing time.

Omaha got down early and trailed 5-0, 7-2, 10-3, and 16-6 after almost 10 minutes. Omaha did mount a rally over the next few minutes spurred by their bench. Alex Phillips had a three-point play and Caleb Steffensmeier hit a there to bring the Mavericks within four, but Tulane answered with another 16-5 run to lead 32-17 with 2:14 left in the half. The margin was nearly the same at 35-21 when we went to the intermission.

Other than the bad shooting in the 1st half we also saw Omaha turn the ball over 10 times, including four by CJ Carter. It could have been down a lot worse but Tulane only shot 41% on their part, including 4-16 from three.

The 2nd half was a bit more positive for Omaha as they played with Tulane, but of course the game was really over for the most part. Omaha got the lead down to 13 twice, but the 2nd time Tulane pushed it right back up to 21 on a 12-4 run that left them up 56-35 with 11:48 left. Omaha clawed their way back to a thirteen point deficit with a 10-2 run of their own, but Tulane again answered with a 11-2 run to put it right back to 22. Whenever Tulane gave Omaha any hope they immediately took it right back. Omaha didn’t score after the 2:40 mark and the final saw them trailing by their largest deficit, 76-52.

It was Over When: Once you get down twenty in the second half of a game you can’t hit shots there’s no comeback happening… Omaha first saw the gap hit 20 when Kendall Timmons hit two FTs to make the lead 54-33 with 12:23 left in the game.

Player of the Game: I’m not sure I’d really consider anyone else on Omaha of having a game even worth considering, other than Matt Hagerbaumer. Hagerbaumer went 2-2 from the field and 1-2 from the line to score five points, but he did his most important work on the boards grabbing seven rebounds. He also had an assist.

Season Total:
CJ Carter (1)
John Karhoff (1)
Matt Hagerbaumer (1)
Justin Simmons (1)

Stat Leaders: Alex Phillips led the Mavericks in scoring for the 1st time as he was the only one to crack double-digits with 13. Matt Hagerbaumer was the only Maverick with more than four rebounds as he grabbed seven. Two Mavericks, John Kahroff and Marcus Tyus, shared the lead in assists with two. Six Mavericks grabbed a steal each: Alex Welhouse, CJ Carter, Justin Simmons, Alex Phillips, Caleb Steffensmeier, and Marcus Tyus.

Leading the Team Season Total
CJ Carter (1)
John Karhoff (1)
Alex Phillips (1)
Justin Simmons (1)

CJ Carter (1)
Matt Hagerbaumer (1)
John Karhoff (1)
Alex Welhouse (1)

CJ Carter (2)
John Karhoff (1)
Justin Simmons (1)
Marcus Tyus (1)

CJ Carter (4)
Alex Phillips (2)
Marcus Tyus (2)
Alex Welhouse (2)
Jacques Coleman (1)
Koang Doluony (1)
Matt Hagerbaumer (1)
John Karhoff (1)
Justin Simmons (1)
Caleb Steffensmeier (1)

Player Ratings (Positionally Adjusted Win Score): 
Matt Hagerbaumer – 2.462
Jacques Coleman – 2.165
Caleb Steffensmeier – 1.595
Simon Krych – 1.480
Alex Phillips – 0.434
Koang Doluony – 0
Marcus Tyus – (-0.781)
John Karhoff – (-0.800)
Alex Welhouse – (-0.822)
C.J. Carter – (-1.684)
Justin Simmons – (-2.197)
Tyler Egli – (-4.934)

So we see a very good game in 17 minutes by Hagerbaumer, a good seven minutes by Coleman (no turnovers, one rebound, and a made basket on his only shot), and Steffensmeier and Krych also had good lines. Alex Phillips is the only one player who contributed positively. 55% of the minutes used by the Mavericks on Friday were by players who contributed negatively, mostly due to the missed shots among this group. The players who scored negatively went 6-37! Incredible. The Mavericks as a team actually had a negative Win Score.

Season Total:
Matt Hagerbaumer – 2.006
Caleb Steffensmeier – 1.015
Alex Phillips – 1.011
Marcus Tyus – 0.884
Simon Krych – 0.744
Alex Welhouse – 0.564
Koang Doluony – 0.479
John Karhoff – 0.268
Justin Simmons – 0.188
C.J. Carter – 0.096
Jacques Coleman – (-0.122)
Tyler Egli – (-2.924)

Interesting to see a clear dichotomy between the starters (between .096 and .564) and the main bench players (between .744 and 2.006). I think some of that is clearly due to the bench players being more likely to play late in blowouts, but it’s also somewhat revealing. All the players near the top have had good performances off the bench and played earlier in some games. Hagerbaumer is the leading rebounder on the team despite playing half the minutes of the other two guys with 15+ rebounds. Steffensmeier doesn’t make mistakes and is solid off the bench. Phillips is the 2nd leading scorer but has taken 22 less shots than the leader (Karhoff) and scored only 2 less points.

Team Ratings: The pace was not much slower (70 possessions) than Omaha played against Texas Tech and probably close to what Omaha will see a lot of times this year. The offense was not much worse in points per possession at 0.8, but the eFG% dropped dramatically to 32.7% after being above 50% in ever game so far. Omaha’s ability to not get beat by 30 was due to better offensive rebounding (23.1%) and turnover rate (20%).  Defensively they were also slightly better seeing a 1.15 points per possession mark for Tulane.

Omaha did a good job getting assists on their few made baskets, but they only scored on 36.2% of possessions and that really hurt the Mavericks. They did do a much better job of getting to the FT line as they had an above average FT Production rating of 29.1.

Possessions: 70
Offensive Points per Possession : 0.80
Defensive Points per Possession : 1.15
eFG%: 32.7%
Turnover Rate: 20.0%
Offensive Rebounding: 23.1%
Defensive Rebounding: 64.0%
A/B%: 56.2%
Floor%: 36.2%
FT Prod: 29.1

3 stats that tell the tale of the game:

1) Shooting % – This could have been the only stat I shared… 29.1% shooting won’t get wins on the road.

2) Turnover Margin – This was one reason Omaha stayed in the game (relatively speaking)… Tulane did have 13 turnovers to Omaha’s 14.

3) Defensive 2PT FG% – While Tulane “only” shot 45% from the field, they shot 33% from three. If you look at just 2 PT FG shots Tulane was a very effective 17-31 (55%).

Response to 3 things to watch:

1) Runs  – Tulane had runs of 16-6, 16-5, 12-4, and 11-2. Omaha did manage to answer with a few runs of their own, but Tulane got into some really good grooves in this game.

2.) Omaha’s Achilles’ Heels (Turnovers and Defensive Rebounding) – 20% turnover rate and 64% defensive rebounding rate. It was the cleanest Omaha was with the ball and the 3rd best rebounding night, though not far behind the others. Wonder how much the turnover rate will improve as the team gets used to playing with each other.

3.) Defense on Davis/Tarrant – Davis has 17 and Tarrant had 10. They went a combined 10-28. If you had told me that before the game I might have picked Omaha to win.  Unfortunately… Jordan Callahan went off for 27 points on 9-15 shooting including 6-10 from 3.

Prediction Response: Nope. I was pretty close on Tulane’s total but Omaha’s offense obviously left them a little bit short… Welhouse did not have a good game so not close on the leading scorer.

Upcoming Opponent: Nebraska (2-0) on Sunday afternoon… a win would be amazing, but Nebraska’s defense will probably give Omaha troubles.

Linkage: recap recap
Times-Picayune recap
My Quick Reaction


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