Maverick Maniac's Musings

November 12, 2012

2012-13 Omaha Men’s Basketball – Game 2 Recap – Saint Mary

Filed under: College Sports,Men's Basketball,Omaha Mavericks — Jon Green @ 1:47 am

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to see it happen, does it really count? If Omaha lost to Saint Mary and no one ever said anything about it… could we just pretend it didn’t happen?  Yikes…

Well what can you say… Omaha lost to Saint Mary 96-86 Sunday night. It happened. A few people nationally noticed, a few jokes were cracked. It really really stinks to think about tonight. I’d love to just pretend it didn’t happen. In a few years though it will hopefully be just a minor blip on the radar in the first year of Summit League membership.

I wish I’d been there to see it, would love to know exactly what happened and give you guys some better details.  I’ll do my best with some tweets I’ve seen and the old reliable box score.  For starters Omaha got off to a slow start again. They found themselves down 7-3 after just a couple minutes. They didn’t let that worry them though and roared back to lead 36-18 and held a 44-29 lead with 2:48 left in the first half. Cruising right? The lead was trimmed slightly to 49-38 at the half.

Then the second half… not a good time for Omaha. A 12-0 run by Saint Mary put them on top 50-49 and gave Omaha notice that this game was not going to be a pushover.  Saint Mary held the lead for most of the second half and were clinging to a 65-59 lead with 10 minutes left… I suppose this is when Omaha “melted down”. Why do I say melted down? Well according to this tweet, and according to the omaha.com story, when Justin Simmons picked up his technical foul at the 8:31 mark (and Omaha now down 13) he KICKED THE BALL INTO THE RAFTERS. Those are pretty high… I’d call that a meltdown.  Simmons has a lot of talent but he can’t take his situation for granted. Will be interesting to see what Coach Hansen does; he hasn’t been known to deal lightly with players who get technicals, and I can’t remember anything quite like this.  And if he did get hurt well that may just add insult to the injury (pun intended). The lead got as large as NINETEEN FREAKING POINTS. NINETEEN. Omaha rallied and got as close as 92-84 with 45 seconds left but couldn’t complete the desperation comeback and lost 96-86.

Look going Division 1 is great because you get some national attention… but this isn’t the kind of national attention we were looking for. I sure hope no one convinced Sportscenter this is worthy of some attention. Thank goodness it happened on a Sunday instead of midweek when they aren’t distracted by NFL as much.

Saint Mary was led by Jordan Wilcox who had 20 points, Shiron Williams who had 18, Jeb Greenberg who had 15, and Matt Heydman who had 13. They shot 50% from the field and from three, including shooting 8-11 from three in the second half. I sure hope they were hitting those threes over extended hands and not against weak perimeter defense…

Omaha was led by John Karhoff’s great offensive performance… 18 points on 9-14 shooting. Alex Phillips added 16 points off the bench in what appears to be a much more composed showing (4-5 from the field, 6-11 from the FT line). Koang Doluony had 11 points and five rebounds while CJ Carter, Marcus Tyus, and Alex Welhouse each had 8 points.  Mavericks didn’t shoot horribly, 52% for the game, but had to try to overcome 20 turnovers and giving up offensive rebounds on 32.4% of the missed shots by Saint Mary. That was slightly better than they did against Northern Illinois.  Very troubling.  They also were hurt by shooting 16-27 from the FT line… ouch. That’s some points just left for the taking.

It was Over When: I’ll say when Alex Welhouse missed a three down 14 with 2:42 left. The lead was pushed back to 16 after Saint Mary hit a couple of FTs on the other end and it’s hard to believe Omaha could have ever came back then. They did cut it to 11 with 1:07 left and 8 with 0:45 left, but unless we’re going to say that no lead is too big I think we can call this one over before that.

Player of the Game: Do I have to give it to a Maverick? I kid, I kid. From the box score at least I think John Karhoff deserves some praise for his game tonight. 18 points on 9-14 shooting (0-2 from the FT stripe) is a pretty good performance. He also grabbed four  rebounds, three assists, and two blocks.  He did turn the ball over twice, but who didn’t? Honestly… only five Mavericks didn’t turn it over twice and three of them had one turnover a piece in less than ten minutes each.

Season Total:
CJ Carter (1)
John Karhoff (1)

Stat Leaders: John Karhoff led Omaha for the first time with 18 points followed by Alex Phillips with 16 and Koang Doluony with 11. Alex Welhouse led Omaha for the first time this year with eight rebounds while Justin Simmons chipped in seven and Koang Doluony had five. Justin Simmons led the Mavericks with six assists on the night while three Mavericks had three assists. Four players tied for the lead with two steals, Alex Welhouse, Koang Doluony, CJ Carter, and Marcus Tyus.

Leading the Team Season Total
Points:
CJ Carter (1)
John Karhoff (1)

Rebounds:
John Karhoff (1)
Alex Welhouse (1)

Assists:
CJ Carter (1)
Justin Simmons (1)

Steals:
CJ Carter (2)
Alex Welhouse (1)
Koang Doluony (1)
Marcus Tyus (1)

Player Ratings (Positionally Adjusted Win Score): 
Marcus Tyus – 3.385
Matt Hagerbaumer – 2.713
Alex Phillips – 1.803
Justin Simmons – 1.149
Koang Doluony – 1.120
Jacques Coleman – 1.082
Alex Welhouse – 1.021
C.J. Carter – 0.874
John Karhoff – 0.815
Simon Krych – 0.388
Caleb Steffensmeier – 0.344

Win score measures some things well and other things not so well. If you add up the win scores today you get a whole win. Statistically using the main categories, the Mavericks did enough today to win an average game. They didn’t. What does Win Score not measure well? DEFENSE. If you gave up 30 points to every opponent it would never register on a Win Score rating. Not a perfect stat by any means, but given the statistics we are given it’s about the best we can do.  It’s pretty similar to efficiency ratings but on a different metric. A PAWS of 1.0 is what an average player would do at that position. So in today’s game most Omaha players put up an above average performance. Interestingly in the Northern Illinois game only three Mavericks were above average by Win Score and the Mavericks only put up .575 of a win (yet still won thanks to good defense).

Now to analyzing today’s numbers… Marcus Tyus had a phenomenal game by Win Score in his 2nd game. He played fifteen minutes and scored eight points on five shots and two FTs, grabbed a rebound, two assists, a block and two steals. Six of the minutes (and most of the stats) came in the first half and he was given eight minutes in the second half. Will he see more playing time?  Matt Hagerbaumer continues to make a case for more playing time. Only given six minutes today he made his only basket and grabbed three rebounds and a block. Why doesn’t he play more? Is there a defensive liability there? Will try to watch this better next time I get to see them play.

The inside guys had big decent nights as Koang Doluony, John Karhoff, and Alex Welhouse were all around average in Win Score.  One thing to note here is with the positional adjustment Win Score expects interior players to pick up better lines. This is due to the “ease” of getting rebounds which are worth quite a bit. So while Karhoff had a great offensive game the fact that he only picked up four rebounds in 30 minutes will not help him in WinScore. CJ Carter struggled a bit and needed eight shots to score eight points. Steffensmeier is always an outlier in this metric to me as he doesn’t register in the stat sheet nearly as much as he does on the court. He also doesn’t waste a lot of shots as evidenced by him scoring five points off of three shots today.

Season Total:
Marcus Tyus – 2.841
Matt Hagerbaumer – 1.860
Alex Phillips – 1.439
Alex Welhouse – 1.382
Jacques Coleman – 0.997
C.J. Carter – 0.821
John Karhoff – 0.629
Koang Doluony – 0.693
Simon Krych – 0.465
Caleb Steffensmeier – 0.303
Justin Simmons – 0.249
Tyler Egli – 0.000

Team Ratings: First of all this game had 83 possessions which is very fast.  Omaha only played one game last year with more possessions and that one featured OT. Was the pace too fast?  I would think a pace like this would favor Omaha considering Saint Mary had played the last two days, but who knows. Offensively Omaha was good scoring 1.04 points per possession, though that was below the 1.11 they had last year against Saint Mary. Defensively it was woeful as Saint Mary scored 1.15 points per possession. I believe the worst defensive performance Omaha had in a win last year was 1.07 points per possession. You just aren’t going to win many games when you give up points at a rate of 1.15 per possession. In fact Omaha has only scored at that kind of rate five times in their last 30 games (and three of those were against NAIA teams, the other two were 1.15 and 1.16). Not good.

The eFG% was fairly good at 58.3% while the turnover rate tells a lot of the story as the Mavericks turned it over on 24.1% of possessions. They only had three games with a worse rate than that last year, all double-digit losses. You just can’t win games if you are turning it over one out of every four trips down the court.

Rebounding wise the Mavericks were pretty good on the offensive glass grabbing 34.3% of the available boards but struggled mightly again defensively as they only grabbed 67.6% of the available rebounds… against an NAIA team playing its 3rd game in three days without any players over 6-8.

Omaha got assists on 58.1% of their made baskets, a much better number. They scored on a fantastic 51.2% of their possessions which means Omaha rarely came away without scoring (unless they turned it over). The % of possessions where the Mavericks missed a shot to end the possession was only 24.7%. Normally that’d be a great number… but not when you have that many turnovers.

Finally the Mavericks had a FT Production rating of 26.7 which is about average. Mavericks did a decent job getting to the line but didn’t shoot well enough to get a higher rating.

Possessions: 83
Offensive Points per Possession : 1.04
Defensive Points per Possession : 1.15
eFG%: 58.3%
Turnover Rate: 24.1%
Offensive Rebounding: 34.3%
Defensive Rebounding: 67.6%
A/B%: 58.1%
Floor%: 51.2%
FT Prod: 26.7

3 stats that tell the tale of the game: 

1) Saint Mary – 3Pt% in the 2nd Half – When you go 8-11 from 3 in the second half you are going to pull some upsets. Assuming these weren’t ridiculous 3’s with two guys in their face you have to imagine some blame goes on the Omaha defense.

2) Turnovers – Want to know how to throw away a good shooting night and lose to an NAIA team? Turn the ball over twenty times, including 14 in the 2nd half.  Omaha is in big trouble if they don’t start taking care of the ball, especially when they give up 31 points off those turnovers.

3) Defensive Rebounding % – It nearly killed them in game one and it got them in game two. Winning teams don’t let the opponent get a second chance on nearly a 1/3 of possessions. One reason a defense makes mistakes is they are forced to keep playing after getting an initial stop because they didn’t secure the rebound. Saint Mary had 19 2nd chance points off their 12 offensive rebounds.

Response to 3 things to watch:

1) Saint Mary’s Energy – Hard to say this played any kind of role… Saint Mary didn’t seem to get too far down their bench and gave their five starters between 22-31 minutes. They came through providing 72 of their 96 points. They also showed some mental resiliency and showed the attitude that always can make these games tough. They knew this was their chance to get a win they will never forget… and I saw on twitter a few players posting pictures after the game of the scoreboard showing what they called the greatest win in school history. Ugh.

2.) Omaha’s Sloppiness – Umm can you say Bingo? Clearly the sloppiness on offense had a lot to do with the loss as the Mavericks amassed 20 turnovers. Do the offensive rebounds given up fit into this category too? I don’t see why not. These might be the Achilles Heels of the Mavericks this year.

3.) Rest/Rotation – Rest… haha. What a pipe dream that was apparently. The Mavericks were able to keep their starters under 30 minutes but all of them played in the high twenties (unless they picked up a technical). The bench wasn’t relied on a ton with Marcus Tyus, Alex Phillips, and Caleb Steffensmeier being the only players to pick up more than 10 minutes.  Did I overlook Saint Mary? Certainly, but then again I’m just a lowly blogger sharing my thoughts… I’m allowed to overlook Saint Mary. The basketball team is not and I think they probably did today…

Now let’s talk the situation going forward… Inside it looks like Karhoff is going to do most of the work and will be spelled by Krych and Hagerbaumer. I’d prefer to see more minutes for Hagerbaumer including playing some minutes at the 4 alongside Karhoff. The Mavericks will spell Welhouse and Doluony by going small and letting an extra guard play. Alex Phillips looks to be the sixth man, but with Justin Simmons potential injury and technical we may see Phillips move into the starting lineup. If he does move up I imagine Marcus Tyus will see more minutes and it’s hard to argue the freshman doesn’t deserve them. We could see Caleb Steffensmeier return to the starting lineup and bump CJ Carter back to the off guard spot, won’t know for sure until we hear more but I’d be betting on Phillips into the starting lineup.

Prediction Response: I barely want to talk about my prediction other than me being spot on John Karhoff’s point total of 18. Never saw this one coming. Massey (computer ratings) said there was a 2.1% chance of Saint Mary winning by 10 points or more. Ugh…

Upcoming Opponent: Texas Tech (1-0) on Wednesday night in Lubbock. Good place for the Mavericks to go and refocus. Not asking for a win on Wednesday night but just hoping to not see Omaha get embarrassed. I want to see some heart. I want to see some hustle.

Linkage:

Omavs.com recap

Omaha.com recap

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2 Comments »

  1. […] the recap of last night is still up on Omaha.com and on my blog!  If you want to see how annoying it is to be D1 and have this happen just know you can read about […]

    Pingback by 2012-13 Omaha Basketball – Morning Round Up – 11/12/12 « Maverick Maniacs' Musings — November 12, 2012 @ 8:32 am | Reply

  2. […] can still read the recap of the Saint Mary game on my blog!  For the perspective trickling out of Leavenworth you can click here… Some talk of it being […]

    Pingback by 2012-13 Omaha Basketball – Morning Round Up – 11/13/12 « Maverick Maniacs' Musings — November 13, 2012 @ 7:15 am | Reply


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