Maverick Maniac's Musings

January 28, 2009

Win Score and the Mavs

Filed under: Uncategorized — Jon Green @ 6:24 am

Well I discoverd something interseting Sunday over on Bluejay Basketball, http://bluejaybasketball.wordpress.com/2009/01/06/player-effectiveness-midseason/, called the win score.  What is it?  A way of computing how much a player is contributing to the team.  Thought it might be a fun way to take a look at the UNO team and what comes out.

First the formula.  

“Formula:  (Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes = Win Score per Minute”

And then there are adjustments…

 

  • Centers: 0.225
  • Power Forwards: 0.215
  • Small Forwards: 0.152
  • Shooting Guards: 0.128
  • Point Guards: 0.132

 

This is done because Centers should get a higher score with more rebounds.  So basically we want to compare everyone to their positions average.

So I classified Matt Akins and John Ring as Centers, Justin Petersen and Dion Curry as Power Forwards, Matt Newman as a Small Forward, a whole heck of a lot of guys (Michael Jenkins, Mitch and Tyler Albers, Jeff Martin and Aaron Terry [I know he’s playing PF a lot but he really is a SG at best] at Shooting Gaurd, and Andrew Bridger and Nate Owen at Point Gaurd.

Anyways, here’s the ranking on this season raw.  No adjustments.  The centers and power forwards should have better numbers

  1. Jeff Martin -.281
  2. Matt Newman – .278
  3. Dion Curry – .238
  4. Justin Petersen – .235
  5. Michael Jenkins – .219
  6. Matt Akins – .195
  7. Andrew Bridger -.189
  8. Aaron Terry – .189
  9. Mitch Albers – .131
  10. Tyler Albers – .117
  11. John Ring – .071
  12. Nate Owen – .020

We see from this list that apparently Jeff Martin would really help this team.  No surprise, his stats where phenomenal while he was still healthy.  Matt Newman has also put up very good numbers in limited minutes.  He’s also rewareded for handling the ball pretty well and not wasting shots.  Our two PF come in next, both helped by the rebounds they pick up.  Michael Jenkins come in after that, his ability to score a ton of points without shooting too many shots help him on this list.  As many points as Mitch Albers with 80 less shots.  Getting to the FT line is huge.  After Michael is Matt Akins, another player helped by playing down low.  Andrew Bridger and Aaron Terry tie for the next spot, followed by Mitch and Tyler Albers, and finally John Ring and Nate Owen.  Mitch’s numbers seem surprisingly low, but he doesn’t pick up a ton of rebounds (he’s close to even with Bridger) and takes a lot of shots.  He also doesn’t get to the line as much.  He’s a pure scorer, but that’s a very very large part of his game.

Now let’s look at their adjusted numbers.  These are in times better or worse than the average player at their position.

  1. Jeff Martin – 2.197 * the average SG
  2. Matt Newman – 1.850 * the average SF
  3. Michael Jenkins – 1.831 * the average SF
  4. Aaron Terry – 1.475 * the average SG
  5. Andrew Bridger – 1.431 * the average PG
  6. Dion Curry – 1.106 * the average PF
  7. Justin Petersen – 1.092 * the average PF
  8. Mitch Albers – 1.025 * the average SG
  9. Tyler Albers – 0.913 * the average SG
  10. Matt Akins – 0.868 * the average C
  11. John Ring – 0.317 * the average C
  12. Nate Owen – 0.151 * the average PG

Intersting things, Jenkins’ stats look really good here.  Playing well above what his average should be for a SG.  A lot of this is due to his ability to get to the line.  Michael consistently is able to score double the number of shots he takes.  Very impressive.  Aaron Terry is higher than you might expect because he plays like a 4 but is really a 2.  Bridger looks a lot more reasonable here, probably about right.  Dion Curry and Justin Petersen both are about where I’d expect them.  Solid PF, but with the size they have to play against (playing as centers) I think their numbers are a bit lower. Mitch is still surprisingly low. I guess he just doesn’t contribute as much as I think to a game. 

For comparision here are some other numbers. 

  • Mitch’s game against Washburn on Saturday was 1.850 * the average for a SG.  This makes sense as he had an absolutley killer game.  But note he was still below Jeff Martin’s season average.  That’s how good Jeff Martin played in those games before he got hurt.
  • Last year’s Mitch Albers (who I considered a statisical wonder) was 1.534 * the average for a SG.   I looked back at his numbers and did notice that he had a lot more shots than I originally noticed, almost 1 every 2 minutes.  This helps explain why even with the great numbers he was still below Michael’s season this year.
  • For comparison… here are the 5 starters from last year’s team.   Lowest is Andrew Bridger at 1.083 * the average for a PG (brought it up nicely this year).  Then Justin Petersen at 1.241 * the average for a PF.  This is actually a bit higher than this year… not surprisingly actually I felt Justin had a stronger year last year.  The biggest reason is without Jerry Bennet inside, Justin is really playing more of a co-4 role along with Dion Curry.  It’s just a different game without Jerry. Next is Jerry Bennet at 1.353 * the average for a Center.  Jerry’s raw win score of .304/min is very very good.  He’s hurt by the fact that he’s a center though.  Still a great player and a treat to watch. Next is Michael Jenkins at 1.432 * the average for a SG.  Awesome season for Michael last year.  On the top is Denny Johnston at 1.800 * the average for a SF.  Great player, I don’t think I ever realized how good he was until watching him in Summer League this last year.  Such a treat to watch.  Still don’t realize how good he was I think.  Michael Jenkins has a chance to top that mark this year.

Remember numbers don’t mean everything, but they do mean a lot in basketball.  It’s one sport in my mind where stats can tell you a whole heck of a lot.

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